Thursday, September 29, 2011

Sports: The Greatest Entertainment Ever Made

Spectacular finish
Sports find ways to amaze
Red Sox, Braves sent home

(A Haggy Haiku)

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Sports are realistic soap operas.
They have intense storylines: heroes, pariahs and the inevitable fixation for the dramatic.
Atlanta and Boston seemingly had the Wild Card spots in the NL and AL locked up.
Or not.
Injuries, fatigue and impressive, resilient play by St. Louis and Tampa Bay changed Atlanta's and Boston's feeling of comfort, to uneasy, to lost, to simply stunned.
Kind of how the Vikings felt after leading the Lions at home 21-0 at halftime Sunday, only to lose 26-23 in overtime.
It happens in sports all the time; the reason why they make for the best programming and form of entertainment at our disposal.
Stay tuned. Because as the great Yogi Berra astutely said, "it ain't over till it's over."



Baltimore Executes Role of "Spoiler"

Credit the Baltimore Orioles' timely hitting for Boston's disastrous finish to the season.
Baltimore was the worst team in the American League as recently as September 13. The Orioles finished 2011 11-5, including 5-2 against Boston.
Injuries, a shaky rotation and fatigued bullpen factored most heavily into Boston's epic plummet. If it weren't for the fight and resilience of an Orioles team that had little to play for, reminiscent to that shown by the Wild Card winning Rays, the playoff picture would have a different face.
The O's came from behind to win four of the five games versus Boston over the season's final two weeks.
Of course, Robert Andino's walk-off single Wednesday was the straw that tore Boston's Sox.

Playoff Predictions

Division Series

AL

New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers
-Tigers in 5

Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
-Rangers in 4

NL

Milwaukee Brewers v. Arizona Diamondbacks
-D-Backs in 5

Philadelphia Phillies v. St. Louis Cardinals
-Cards in 5

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Championship Series

AL

Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers
-Tigers in 6

NL

Arizona Diamondbacks v. St. Louis Cardinals
-Cards in 6

---------------------------------------------------------------

World Series

In a rematch of the 2006 World Series, the Tigers will exact revenge on the Red Birds in 6.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Pujols, not Kemp is Late-Season Statistical Storyline

More coverage of Matt Kemp's impressive season.
That's what the casual person across America continues to chant.
Major sports networks should highlight Kemp's near Triple Crown season, they say.
They emphasize, if not for the collapses of Boston and Atlanta, Kemp would be the headline story this September.
No discredit to Matt Kemp, who is an NL MVP front-runner this season, but more attention to his stellar campaign is unwarranted.
Should anyone receive tons of attention, it's three-time MVP Albert Pujols.
Pujols, unlike Kemp, is on the brink of leading the once middling Red Birds to the playoffs and possibly extending his streak of .300/30/100 (AVG, HR, RBI) to 11.
Where Kemp had to rely on other hitters to slump, while maintaining leads in homers and RBI, Pujols had control of his milestone.
Unfortunately, through game 162, Pujols is a point and RBI short (.299/37/99). He finished Wednesday night's game 1-for-5 with a run scored and runner knocked in.
Should the first baseman be gifted another game, by virtue of Atlanta winning tonight's extra-inning thriller against the Phillies, he would have second life.
Only Al Simmons began his career with more consecutive 100 RBI seasons, with 11.
Pujols, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez are the only players to hit at least 30 homers and drive in at least 100 in 10 or more seasons.
To baseball fans across the country: "Go Braves."

2011 Future Twins Offered Little

Records are meant to be broken. Some shouldn't be.
The Minnesota Twins won't top their worst record in franchise history, but are scarily close.
Call it Minnesota's do-or-die playoffs, the Twins need a pair of victories in their final games of the season to avoid a 100 loss season.
Once before has Minnesota suffered the abject distinction of triple digit defeats. That came in 1982.
Of course, this is all funded by the largest payroll the team has ever seen and ninth highest in baseball.
While Joe Mauer recovers from pneumonia and an assortment of other ailments that have ultimately kept him sidelined half the year and Justin Morneau continues to decline in health since last year's concussion, Minnesota's season has limped along.
Long out of contention, the youngsters have had a chance to play every day. Technically, the saplings are longing to make a good impression on management; perhaps, they'll receive a shot to make the roster next year.
In reality, very few are contributing.
The average every-day baseball position player and starting pitcher contributes two wins per year (WAR).
Nationals' Danny Espinosa is tops among rookies, boasting a 3.6 WAR. Former Twins catcher Wilson Ramos is second.
By comparison, Tsuyoshi Nishioka is dead last. The shortstop the Twins invested sizable time and money on has cost the Twins 1.4 victories in 68 games this season. Trevor Plouffe and Rene Tosoni haven't fared much better.
Plouffe is the worst fielder among rookies and has been responsible for point-six losses this season, a WAR identical to Tosoni's.
Luke Hughes is plus point-five and Brian Dinkelman is plus point-one.
Among rookie pitchers on the Twins, Jim Hoey, Alex Burnett and Kyle Waldrop have hurt more than helped and Scott Diamond and Liam Hendriks have barely had positive impacts.
It's too bad, too.
To this point, only Ben Revere and September call-up Chris Parmelee seem to demonstrate abilities worthy of consistent future playing time.
Revere has plus range and speed, but possesses a terrible throwing arm. Parmelee walks at a high rate and has shown good power.
This off-season the Twins could lose Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. And if Mauer and Morneau aren't healthy to start next season, it would mean more playing time for some of these aforementioned Bambis.
Suddenly 100 losses doesn't seem so scary.


(WAR Explanation Below)

Context:

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically less than 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack 1 WAR.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

All the Right Moves

Heading into the trade deadline, the AL Central was up for grabs.
On July 30, the Tigers held a 1 1/2 game lead over the Cleveland Indians. The race was so tight, six games separated Detroit and fourth-place Minnesota.
A great and deep offense, perfect closer and best pitcher in baseball in 2011 helped Detroit claim the divisional lead from the upstart Indians for good July 21. But lack of consistency behind ace Justin Verlander in the rotation left the Tigers vulnerable.
So management went out and acquired Doug Fister from the lately perennial benefactor Mariners. The Tigers gave up a few prospects, but scored quite the deal.
Fister can be theirs through 2015; the lanky right-hander won't be eligible for salary arbitration until the 2012 off-season.
Two months, 53 games and 37 wins later, the Tigers have not only long ago wrapped their first division title since 1987, but have put themselves in a position to make a run in the playoffs.
As dominate as CY Young shoe-in and possible AL MVP Verlander has been, Fister has been almost every bit as good in the Motor City.
In 10 starts, Fister is 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and .84 WHIP. Just as impressive are his four free passes over 70.1 innings.
Over his last eight outings, Fister has done one better, going 7-0 with a .66 ERA.
Detroit also bolstered its already dangerous lineup by landing left fielder Delmon Young. The former first overall pick is an upgrade from aging Magglio Ordonez and has hit .278 with 8 dingers and 32 RBI in 39 games. Pace that over a full season and Young would have more than 30 homers and 120 knocked in.
Not bad considering what Detroit gave up for him.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Collapse

AL
Sailing along carefree
Boston's weaknesses exposed
Collapse in fold

NL
Talented arms
Braves stood strong, till injuries struck
Playoff hopes in doubt

(Haggy Haikus)

Improvements Points at a Time

Little by little the Minnesota Vikings are making improvements.
Their halftime leads have grown in three games, from 10, to 17, to 20; their losses have softened, from seven, to four, to three, in overtime.
Against three quality teams the Vikings are playing good football ... for 30 minutes.
That's not good enough.
If the return on a dollar to LeBron is three good quarters, it's 50 cents to Minnesota.
A franchise beleaguered by back luck, epic meltdowns and questionable personnel decisions, this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise.
Something has got to give.
It seems so absurd a team could dominate so consistently for one half, only to fold like a napkin the next.
Studying the statistics and play-calls first half to second for all three games, it doesn't seem like there is a glaringly obvious numerical reason for these losses.
Maybe one. More in a bit.
In general, it stands to reason, the more touches Adrian Peterson receives, the better off Minnesota will be. Donovan McNabb is completing a sub-par 58 percent of his passes -- the majority of which are short tosses in Minnesota's West Coast offense.
In fact, not once has Minnesota gone three-and-out, sans a penalty, when Peterson rushes twice.
Play-calling hasn't been much of an issue. The struggles can be chalked up to lack of execution on both sides of the ball.
There have been poor coaching moments though; coach Leslie Frazier seems to have picked up where predecessor Brad Childress left off, like going for it on fourth-and-1 when the Vikings were in field goal range and up three Sunday against the Lions. He selected to run Toby Gerhart, no less.
Last year Childress cost the team a couple victories (Dolphins game Week 2 comes to mind) by foolishly trying to extend drives and convert fourth downs when field goal tries were readily available.
Minnesota needs to take points when it can.
Mostly, though, the Vikings offense hasn't been able to convert third downs in the second half and the defense has struggled to get off the field in key situations.
Minnesota converted just 28.6 percent of its third downs Sunday and is 36.1 percent on drive extending downs during this young season.
In the second half, the Vikings are as active as a driver on US-101 in rush hour. Their 0-for-6 effort on third downs after intermission Sunday versus the Lions makes them at a paltry 1-for-15 in such situations in 2011.
By comparison, opponents are 20-for-42 on third downs (47.6 percent), including 13-for-21 (61.9 percent!) after intermission.
In order for Minnesota to get where it hopes to be, the coaching staff needs to utilize Peterson and Percy Harvin more. The defense needs to toughen up and remain stout for an entire game. And McNabb needs to hit receivers, not the turf.
Sunday against the Chiefs is another chance to improve, little by little.




Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Financial Crisis Re-Lived: The Minnesota Twins 2011

(The Tale of a Small Market Trying to Play Big)

Target Field is a $500,000 home. The Minnesota Twins are a single, low-income family.
The allure of living in a gorgeous ballpark and performing there for years to come overlooking downtown Minneapolis trended this normally small market franchise into a hungry shopper at a grocery store. Man have they spent to feed their voracious appetite.
Looking at baseball's top payrolls this year, Minnesota comes in at $112.7 million, ninth of 30 teams. That puts them above teams such as Detroit, Texas, Arizona and St. Louis, and more than $70 million ahead of MLB's most recently consistent overachiever, Tampa Bay.
That pecuniosity has translated to on-the-field play less reliable than a room full of politicians and less efficient than a 56K Internet connection; in sum, the Twins are the third worst team in baseball.
Only the New York Yankees, who are on the verge of clinching the top spot in the American League, and the historically woeful Chicago Cubs have spent more for each victory than the at-odds Twins; New York has dropped $2 million per "W," the Cubs $1.76 million and the Twins $1.72 million.
By comparison, Arizona has nickel and dimed its way to 85 victories to this point -- and a playoff berth in the near future -- on a $53.6 million payroll. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have spent a mere $456,000 for its success this season.
The Twins have battled injuries all season long, you might say. They were unlucky from the start.
They also have failed to live within their means and are suffering the consequences.
A couple years ago I wrote a post about how the 2008 Yankees stopped spending as much. What happened? Those Bronx Boys Bombed by missing the playoffs.
The Twins this year, and in recent years -- really, since Bill Smith took over as GM -- have spent more and more money. Some of it is understandable; they built a new stadium, which sells out on a nightly basis so there is more money coming in. Most of those expenses, however, are not kosher.
Trading away catcher Wilson Ramos, one of their lone blue chips, for the utterly average Matt Capps and his $7 million pay-grade for the 2011 season last summer was reprehensible. The transaction came during a time when Jon Rauch wasn't the answer and Joe Nathan was recovering from surgery. The move proved careless on the part of the front office.
Firstly, Capps and a reliever named Matt Guerrier the Twins already had on their roster at the time had numbers as identical as Minnesota's nomenclature.
So what Capps had more experience closing games than Guerrier. Based on who the Twins have pitched in those situations before (Eddie Guardado), just about anyone with a couple pitches and decent control can accumulate saves.
Secondly, the move was ill-advisable for its timing. Just like with the Johan Santana trade, everyone at the time KNEW the Twins had Joe Mauer and were trying to lock him up for life. That didn't mean management had to sell short. Bluff and act like Joe Mauer is walking. Say he is considering moving to Right Field. Be creative. But don't play into the rest of the league's hands.
There have been other moments more recently.
Target Field has spurred the single, low-income Twins to go out and imitate the large markets by buying a brand-new Range Rover -- luxury look and incessant mechanical deficiencies -- by paying to negotiate with, then signing Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Not only has history shown that very few Asians make the transition to the Big Leagues, didn't anyone consider the language barrier problems of having a Japanese-speaking shortshop paired with a Spanish-speaking second baseman in Alexi Casilla? After all, the middle infield is arguably the second most important pairing of players on the diamond other than pitcher and catcher.
Then of course there's Joe Mauer. I don't discredit the team for re-signing its franchise catcher, though injuries have made his 2011 campaign pathetic. His 18 extra-base hits is comparable to a bottom-of-the-order hitter, not a franchise centerpiece.
When $23 million per annum is shelled out for one player, you're going to have to accept the talent around him can only be so good (assuming the Twins' spending plateaus).
A number of times this season the Twins broadcasting crew would conjecture, "if the players ahead of Mauer could get on-base, then his singles would drive runners in." Well if Mauer wasn't paid so much to hit just singles (this season, at least) and money wasn't spent on absent-minded shortstops from overseas, maybe the Twins would have some viable No. 1 and 2 hitters.
Another thing, Joe Mauer has hit one home run at Target Field in two seasons of playing there. ONE. Teammates and he say the dimensions don't cater to his opposite-field approach. Then why didn't the designers of the ballpark cater to the player management figured would be playing out his career there? So dumb.
It all amounts to the Twins acting on moves and spending for the wrong reasons. The battalion of inexperienced arms in their bullpen in front of Nathan and Capps could have used some help this season. The same can be said of their starting rotation, which lacks a true No. 1 or 2, for that matter.
In an August 2009 post, I predicted the Washington Nationals would be a better team than the Twins in 2011. Not too shabby. With 16 games to go, I'm in pretty good shape.
For small market teams it's about moving tradeable pieces with an exception or two for potential talent and investing in sound, fundamental baseball based on chemistry, defense and starting pitching.
Hopefully the Twins don't decide to refinance and instead settle on more reasonable means in 2012, otherwise this season's 87 losses and counting might not be rock bottom.