Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Cruz Does It Again

Technically Nelson Cruz's latest home run was his least impressive.
It wasn't game-tying or winning.
His teammates would say the three-run bomb in the 11th inning of another 7-3 win wasn't even his best moment of the night.
Still it helped carry the Rangers into Game 5 of the ALCS and a date with Justin Verlander up three games to one.
Cruz's 10th career playoff home run in just his 24th game made the right fielder the first player in postseason history with two extra-inning round-trippers in the same series.
In those games, he is batting .281 and slugging .708.
To put in perspective how Herculean his bat has been in baseball's "second" season, at the rate Cruz is going yard, he'd have 68 home runs over the course of a 162 game season.
He has hit three more goners than singles.
And this is coming against the league's best pitchers.
During the 2011 LCS, Cruz hit a game-winning home run in Game 1 and added a game-tying shot and walk-off grand slam in Game 2.
But what made Cruz's performance so special Wednesday night was his strong, accurate arm. With the go-ahead run at third in the bottom of the eighth, Delmon Young launched a fly ball deep to right. Cruz camped under it and whipped a perfect strike up the third-base line to Mike Napoli in plenty of time for the catcher to set up and tag out Miguel Cabrera.
The depth of the Texas Rangers organization is impressive.
Its best player the past two postseasons bats seventh.
There's no telling what Cruz will do next. But it'll likely be something dramatic.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Instinctual Caving

The Atlanta Falcons need to take a lesson in discipline.
For a team predicated on few mistakes, good tackling and sound decision-making, the Falcons looked awfully foolish and rushed against the Green Bay Packers Sunday night.
After holding a 14-0 lead, the Packers (5-0) settled down and the Falcons (2-3) packed it up; Green Bay's offense became the aggressor and wound up scoring the final 25 points in a 25-14 win.
The defensive play of the linebackers couldn't have been more dysfunctional.
Coming into the game, it must have been understood the Packers are a pass first, second and third offense.
They rarely run.
Instead of keeping defenses honest with the ground attack, Aaron Rodgers simply runs a play-action pass.
On Sunday night, Rodgers orchestrated the misleading play perfectly. Over and over.
For some reason, the Falcons' backers sold out on the "run" every time, leaving gaping holes between them and the secondary, which is where Rodgers and his receivers accrued huge chunks of yardage.
Trying to gain entrance into the mind of one of these Falcons, the question must be asked: "Would I rather force the running tandem of James Starks and Ryan Grant to beat me, or attempt to challenge Rodgers, the deadly marksman?"
Duh.
Minus a few key starters on defense, Atlanta had its work cut out against Green Bay from the get-go.
The linebacking corps made the team's chances to stop the Packers offense go from difficult, to impossible.

What a Rush: Get the Backs the Ball

Cam Newton is going to be great.
In five games, he has shown tremendous poise, solid decision-making, and dynamic ability.
The defense behind him, however, is the polar opposite.
Maligned, porous and and limited, the other side of the Carolina Panthers struggles mightily.
To keep its worst from seeing the field and best on it, Carolina needs to run the ball more.
DeAngelo Williams is a stud (after September) when healthy and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Newton can move the rock down the field with his legs and Jonathan Stewart is more than capable, too, netting 4.4 yards per rush.
Yet seemingly week after week the Panthers in close games find themselves trying to match the opponent tit-for-tat through the air.
The team passes on average 60 percent of the time; league average in 2009 was 56 percent.
Even though Carolina is scoring via the forward pass, the Panthers are not winning, sitting at 1-4. That's because throwing the ball downfield the way Newton does leads to quicker scores and little rest for a defense that cannot get it done.
By running and completely controlling clock, Carolina should be able to wear teams down, keep its defense off the field and ultimately put itself in a bit better position to win.
Run with that thought, Panthers.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Texas Horseman

What a stud.
The Rangers again rode Nelson Cruz into the night.
Cruz euphorically trotted around the bases behind three of his teammates in the bottom of the 11th inning.
Game over.
Texas 7, Detroit 3.
More importantly, Texas 2, Detroit 0, in the best-of-seven American League Championship Series.
The horse Cruz hit the game-tying home run in the seventh, then won it with nobody out in the 11th off of Ryan Perry.
His bases-loaded shot was the first to end a game in postseason history.
As many weapons as Texas has, it's Cruz who has made the greatest impact in important games.
Really, the extraordinary feat of ending a game with a hit has become rather commonplace for Cruz.
In 2010, he recorded four game-winning hits, including three that left the park.
When pitching and competition are at a premium, Cruz bucks the pressure and performs. Last postseason, he belted six home runs, hit .317 and slugged .733.
After an unproductive ALDS, Cruz is in the zone; two of his three homers have been game-winners in the ALCS and he has six of the team's 10 RBI.
Unless Detroit can corral Cruz and the Rangers offense, it won't be loping to the World Series; no, the Tigers will be carted like Philly: home for good.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

It's DeAngelo Williams' Time

Life in the NFL is finicky.
The average length of a player's career is six seasons. For running backs, it's much shorter --2.57.
With just a 16 game schedule, there is little patience for slow starts among teams and players.
For one player, thankfully his coaches recognize potential, stick with him and reap the benefits of a late harvest.
DeAngelo Williams has never rushed for at least 100 yards during the first month of the season.
In 36 games thereafter, he has accumulated triple-digit yardage 16 times.
Fewer than 10 percent of his 31 career touchdowns have come in September, too.
So when Carolina's newly signed starting back struggled in the team's first three games of 2011, it should have served more as a reminder than a concern.
As soon as the calendar flipped to October, Williams once again hit his stride.
In 10 carries Oct. 2 versus Chicago, he amassed 82 yards. Sunday, despite a meager 9 touches, Williams totaled 115 yards and a touchdown.
If the Panthers rely less on Cam Newton's arm and more on the strong running game, Williams could be in store for a season somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 efforts, where he rushed for 1,515 and 1,117 yards, respectively.
Buy low.

Who's Worse, McNabb or Frazier?

The Vikings won a game.
So now what? They did so with a home crowd behind them against a middling Arizona team.
The coaching staff put the ball in Adrian Peterson's hands a lot more consistently. He rushed the ball 29 times for 122 yards and three touchdowns, including 16 carries in the second half. Defensively, the line pressured Kevin Kolb all afternoon.
Donovan McNabb still cannot make the clutch throws, let alone the straightforward ones.
His vision is worse than Stevie Wonder's. Unlike fans, it's surprising play-maker Percy Harvin isn't more visibly frustrated. A couple times Sunday Harvin found himself wide-open on pass-plays for would-be touchdowns, yet McNabb never looked his way.
Further, the Vikings' most explosive all-purpose threat barely gets on the field.
Who cares that his abilities don't "truly' fit into the West Coast offense. Harvin MUST receive more touches if this team wants to retain full support from a disgruntled fan base.
McNabb isn't the answer at quarterback long-term. The jury is still out on whether he can be short-term.
Frazier is friendly and well-liked -- a good friend; not the hard-nosed, tough love personality you'd expect from a successful coach.
So the coach and quarterback each have a win under his belt. Dramatic improvements are still required of both before fans should fully back either.

Friday, October 7, 2011

At It Again: Big Teams Whiff

Baseball's best and highest paid fell flat when it mattered most.Owning the most wins during the regular season, backed by the largest payrolls in the Major's, New York and Philadelphia bowed out in the first round to Detroit and St. Louis, respectively.
For the Davids of the world, watching the highest paid players on these "greedy" Goliath's tap out with their seasons on the line had to be overwhelmingly gratifying.
Alex Rodriguez struck out to end a series and New York's hopes of a 28th World Championship for the second consecutive year.
Ryan Howard recorded the final out for the $172.9 million Philadelphia Phillies this year on an infielder tapper, a year after taking strike three looking to send the San Francisco Giants into the World Series.
Neither one played as a picture of health; Rodriguez missed significant time during the regular season with a bum knee and thumb, while Howard sat out some games down the stretch with foot and ankle pain.
But it still proves that while money can buy good players and make good teams, there is more to winning than lots of zeroes.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Tough Times

Feeling the clenched fist
Gut heavy, green looking red
Economy stinks

(A Haggy Haiku)

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Sports: The Greatest Entertainment Ever Made

Spectacular finish
Sports find ways to amaze
Red Sox, Braves sent home

(A Haggy Haiku)

=====================================================

Sports are realistic soap operas.
They have intense storylines: heroes, pariahs and the inevitable fixation for the dramatic.
Atlanta and Boston seemingly had the Wild Card spots in the NL and AL locked up.
Or not.
Injuries, fatigue and impressive, resilient play by St. Louis and Tampa Bay changed Atlanta's and Boston's feeling of comfort, to uneasy, to lost, to simply stunned.
Kind of how the Vikings felt after leading the Lions at home 21-0 at halftime Sunday, only to lose 26-23 in overtime.
It happens in sports all the time; the reason why they make for the best programming and form of entertainment at our disposal.
Stay tuned. Because as the great Yogi Berra astutely said, "it ain't over till it's over."



Baltimore Executes Role of "Spoiler"

Credit the Baltimore Orioles' timely hitting for Boston's disastrous finish to the season.
Baltimore was the worst team in the American League as recently as September 13. The Orioles finished 2011 11-5, including 5-2 against Boston.
Injuries, a shaky rotation and fatigued bullpen factored most heavily into Boston's epic plummet. If it weren't for the fight and resilience of an Orioles team that had little to play for, reminiscent to that shown by the Wild Card winning Rays, the playoff picture would have a different face.
The O's came from behind to win four of the five games versus Boston over the season's final two weeks.
Of course, Robert Andino's walk-off single Wednesday was the straw that tore Boston's Sox.

Playoff Predictions

Division Series

AL

New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers
-Tigers in 5

Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
-Rangers in 4

NL

Milwaukee Brewers v. Arizona Diamondbacks
-D-Backs in 5

Philadelphia Phillies v. St. Louis Cardinals
-Cards in 5

-------------------------------------------------------------

Championship Series

AL

Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers
-Tigers in 6

NL

Arizona Diamondbacks v. St. Louis Cardinals
-Cards in 6

---------------------------------------------------------------

World Series

In a rematch of the 2006 World Series, the Tigers will exact revenge on the Red Birds in 6.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Pujols, not Kemp is Late-Season Statistical Storyline

More coverage of Matt Kemp's impressive season.
That's what the casual person across America continues to chant.
Major sports networks should highlight Kemp's near Triple Crown season, they say.
They emphasize, if not for the collapses of Boston and Atlanta, Kemp would be the headline story this September.
No discredit to Matt Kemp, who is an NL MVP front-runner this season, but more attention to his stellar campaign is unwarranted.
Should anyone receive tons of attention, it's three-time MVP Albert Pujols.
Pujols, unlike Kemp, is on the brink of leading the once middling Red Birds to the playoffs and possibly extending his streak of .300/30/100 (AVG, HR, RBI) to 11.
Where Kemp had to rely on other hitters to slump, while maintaining leads in homers and RBI, Pujols had control of his milestone.
Unfortunately, through game 162, Pujols is a point and RBI short (.299/37/99). He finished Wednesday night's game 1-for-5 with a run scored and runner knocked in.
Should the first baseman be gifted another game, by virtue of Atlanta winning tonight's extra-inning thriller against the Phillies, he would have second life.
Only Al Simmons began his career with more consecutive 100 RBI seasons, with 11.
Pujols, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez are the only players to hit at least 30 homers and drive in at least 100 in 10 or more seasons.
To baseball fans across the country: "Go Braves."

2011 Future Twins Offered Little

Records are meant to be broken. Some shouldn't be.
The Minnesota Twins won't top their worst record in franchise history, but are scarily close.
Call it Minnesota's do-or-die playoffs, the Twins need a pair of victories in their final games of the season to avoid a 100 loss season.
Once before has Minnesota suffered the abject distinction of triple digit defeats. That came in 1982.
Of course, this is all funded by the largest payroll the team has ever seen and ninth highest in baseball.
While Joe Mauer recovers from pneumonia and an assortment of other ailments that have ultimately kept him sidelined half the year and Justin Morneau continues to decline in health since last year's concussion, Minnesota's season has limped along.
Long out of contention, the youngsters have had a chance to play every day. Technically, the saplings are longing to make a good impression on management; perhaps, they'll receive a shot to make the roster next year.
In reality, very few are contributing.
The average every-day baseball position player and starting pitcher contributes two wins per year (WAR).
Nationals' Danny Espinosa is tops among rookies, boasting a 3.6 WAR. Former Twins catcher Wilson Ramos is second.
By comparison, Tsuyoshi Nishioka is dead last. The shortstop the Twins invested sizable time and money on has cost the Twins 1.4 victories in 68 games this season. Trevor Plouffe and Rene Tosoni haven't fared much better.
Plouffe is the worst fielder among rookies and has been responsible for point-six losses this season, a WAR identical to Tosoni's.
Luke Hughes is plus point-five and Brian Dinkelman is plus point-one.
Among rookie pitchers on the Twins, Jim Hoey, Alex Burnett and Kyle Waldrop have hurt more than helped and Scott Diamond and Liam Hendriks have barely had positive impacts.
It's too bad, too.
To this point, only Ben Revere and September call-up Chris Parmelee seem to demonstrate abilities worthy of consistent future playing time.
Revere has plus range and speed, but possesses a terrible throwing arm. Parmelee walks at a high rate and has shown good power.
This off-season the Twins could lose Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. And if Mauer and Morneau aren't healthy to start next season, it would mean more playing time for some of these aforementioned Bambis.
Suddenly 100 losses doesn't seem so scary.


(WAR Explanation Below)

Context:

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically less than 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack 1 WAR.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

All the Right Moves

Heading into the trade deadline, the AL Central was up for grabs.
On July 30, the Tigers held a 1 1/2 game lead over the Cleveland Indians. The race was so tight, six games separated Detroit and fourth-place Minnesota.
A great and deep offense, perfect closer and best pitcher in baseball in 2011 helped Detroit claim the divisional lead from the upstart Indians for good July 21. But lack of consistency behind ace Justin Verlander in the rotation left the Tigers vulnerable.
So management went out and acquired Doug Fister from the lately perennial benefactor Mariners. The Tigers gave up a few prospects, but scored quite the deal.
Fister can be theirs through 2015; the lanky right-hander won't be eligible for salary arbitration until the 2012 off-season.
Two months, 53 games and 37 wins later, the Tigers have not only long ago wrapped their first division title since 1987, but have put themselves in a position to make a run in the playoffs.
As dominate as CY Young shoe-in and possible AL MVP Verlander has been, Fister has been almost every bit as good in the Motor City.
In 10 starts, Fister is 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and .84 WHIP. Just as impressive are his four free passes over 70.1 innings.
Over his last eight outings, Fister has done one better, going 7-0 with a .66 ERA.
Detroit also bolstered its already dangerous lineup by landing left fielder Delmon Young. The former first overall pick is an upgrade from aging Magglio Ordonez and has hit .278 with 8 dingers and 32 RBI in 39 games. Pace that over a full season and Young would have more than 30 homers and 120 knocked in.
Not bad considering what Detroit gave up for him.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Collapse

AL
Sailing along carefree
Boston's weaknesses exposed
Collapse in fold

NL
Talented arms
Braves stood strong, till injuries struck
Playoff hopes in doubt

(Haggy Haikus)