Monday, January 12, 2009

The Big One Got Away ... Again


Bob Stoops proved he isn't a big-game coach.
Not anymore, at least.
The Oklahoma coach's latest Bowl Championship Series loss came against Urban Meyer and Florida in the national championship game 24-14.
His losing streak in such bowl games has reached five. His losing streak in title games, three.
That's no small feat for the man who coached the Sooners to a national championship in 2000 but has followed with big stage losses since.
Let's mathematically break down how significant this "accomplishment" truly is.
First, let me explain my logic.
BCS games are played on neutral sites between two well-deserving teams (usually). More specifically, for purposes of my calculations, the teams have equal chance of winning; one in two, or 50 percent.
Taking 1/2 to the fifth power (.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5) to represent the probability that Stoops would lose (or win) all five games gives us this result: .03125, or 3.1 percent.
According to the laws of probability, values of less than 5 percent are considered statistically significant.
There you have it.
Now go tell your friends or family that the topic of whether Stoops struggles when it matters most has been disabused: He is.
Math proved it.

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