Sunday, December 23, 2012

NFL Observations: Week 16

Matt Ryan looks down at the postseason competition
The penultimate week of the NFL regular season provided closure for some and further muddied the playoff picture for others.
Atlanta is the team to beat in the NFC, breezing past Detroit 31-18 Saturday night to secure home-field advantage.
Minnesota, with an impressive win over flip-flopping Houston, can secure a playoff spot with a divisional win over Green Bay next week. Few saw this happening; I pegged the Vikings for six or seven wins. Most pundits had Minnesota winning between four and  six times, including Sports Illustrated's Peter King.
Elsewhere, a couple of NFC East teams failed to assert themselves in the playoff chase.
New York further compromised their playoff chances with the second straight box office flop, falling to Baltimore 33-14. Last week the G-men lost 34-0 to Atlanta. That's OK, though. Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are all or nothing types. They either reach the playoffs on a neutral note and then win the Super Bowl, or they don't bother qualifying for the postseason.
Interdivisional rival Dallas cannot generally do much right EVER in key situations.
Sunday Dallas lost to New Orleans, fighting back from several deficits to force overtime, only to lose 34-31. The Cowboys are like a Scantron exam where 50 answers in a row are correct, but the rest of the test is half wrong; they do a lot of things right, but in the end fail to make the grade.

In the AFC, Indianapolis defeated the 2-13 Kansas City Chiefs Chumps 20-13. Ho hum. Another win for a mediocre team who capitalized on a schedule softer than a chinchilla's fur. More on that in a bit.
Baltimore clinched the AFC North with the W over New York and Cincinnati grabbed a playoff spot with an interception of Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
Division winners Denver and New England also improved their records.

Playoff Picture
It seems so often there are teams that reach the playoffs that do not belong. There are others whose record is good or even great, but you just get a sense things won't go their way once the postseason gets underway.
This year, there could be several pretenders.
New England, New York (G), San Francisco, Chicago and  Minnesota all have strength of schedules above .500. Seattle and the Giants are the only NFL teams with strengths of victory above .500.
For the teams aforementioned, reaching the playoffs is or will be -- in the case of those who have not yet locked up a spot -- well deserved.
For others, it's a bit less clear.
Atlanta, the team with the NFL's best record, has played the easiest schedule so far this season. Moreover, the Falcons strength of victory ranks fourth lowest in the NFC.
The AFC, sans the Brady Bunch, is worse.
Let's start with the Wild Cards. Cincinnati and Indianapolis have not played many good teams and have not beaten anybody worth mentioning. Sure their stories are moving, particularly Indy's rise from worst to 10-5 in one year behind the inspiration of an ill head coach and the talent of 2012's No. 1 pick. Just don't buy that these two teams are actually good. Their strength of victory ranks fourth and fifth worst in the entire NFL.
Speaking of which, everyone wants to anoint Peyton Manning as a demigod for overcoming multiple neck surgeries and a dismissal from a Colts team he resurrected en route to another 12-win season, this time with Denver.
A closer look shows he, too, has played against some mighty lame ducks. While the .480 strength of schedule is about league average, the Broncos strength of victory is near the bottom -- 10th worst in the NFL.

What this all means for those looking to the postseason
Based on regular season results, New York (with lots of help), San Francisco and Seattle have the best chances of making an impact in the NFC. And New England is the clear front-runner to reach the Super Bowl out of the AFC.

Individual Performances
Week 16 produced several new records. Calvin Johnson topped Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yards record by going for 225 yards Saturday night. For all the talk about Adrian Peterson eclipsing the 2,000 mark, Megatron is primed to reach that total as a receiver. Right now he's got 1,892.
Peterson, meanwhile, will have a tough time breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record -- going for 86 in Sunday's win to remain 208 yards away -- but is still a strong bet to become the seventh rusher in NFL history to break 2K. He averages 127 YPG and needs 102 versus Green Bay next week.

Jason Witten quietly set the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tight end. Now with 103, he passed Tony Gonzalez's 2004 effort of 102. Also of note: Houston's Andre Johnson surpassed 100 catches for the fourth time in his career.
Drew Brees became the first QB to top 4,500 yards passing in three consecutive seasons. And some special teamers kicked their way into history Sunday. Minnesota's Blair Walsh stands alone with the most field goals made of 50-plus yards in one season. Washington's Kai Forbath blasted his 17th consecutive field goal Sunday to start his career -- another NFL record.

Quick Hits
The Arizona Cardinals blocked a meaningless 20-yard field goal attempt by the Bears late in the fourth quarter and returned it for a touchdown. With Chicago already up by 22 at that point, the decision seemed pretty dumb. Most teams go for it on fourth-down instead.

Seattle would not be in a position to win the NFC West but for the controversial touchdown call that went its way in Week 3 and essentially ended the labor dispute between the league and referees.



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