Emailbag 1: Response to Twins Post

Send me a question to khagstrom23@gmail.com and I will answer it. I want to make this blog, when I take time to post my thoughts (which hasn't been too often recently), more interactive.

Here's the first set of questions. They both apply to my posting "Twins Down Now, May Be Out Tomorrow."

Question: "What happened to the scouting we used to have?"

Answer: I somewhat misspoke in writing that something has happened to Minnesota's evaluators of talent. They're still pretty solid; some of the best, in fact. The problem has been that the Twins have been winning and have therefore kept their most marketable pieces (or lost them to free agency or one sided trades) in the past few years.

Small market teams are forced to ride waves. Once they can no longer win with the talent they have, they trade it all away and start from the ground up again.

The Twins were bad from 1993 through 2000 (eight years). They’ve been competitive since (nine years). Just seems like the time is nearing where they will have to start over.

The economy will factor greatly into whether Minnesota can avoid the onset of the cycle of losing.
The Santana deal can partially be attributed to this different era in baseball. In tighter financial times teams are more wary of acquiring a major league star at the expense of depleting their farm. That's why Toronto wasn't able to deal Roy Halladay before the trading deadline. Both situations can also be blamed on the GM for not pulling the trigger at the right time when good, if not ideal, offers were out there.
I do still want to make clear that regardless of economic times, some players just aren’t very marketable. Minnesota has quite a bit invested in guys like Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Brendan Harris – the latter two were involved in what should be considered one of the worst trades the Twins have made in my lifetime, giving up an everyday shortstop (which the Twins just acquired back by trading for Cabrera) in Jason Bartlett and a front of the rotation starter (no one has yet filled that void) in Matt Garza.

Don’t forget the Santana trade either.

Management has begun making some mistakes. Large market teams like the Yankees can cover their mistakes by spending.

Small market teams pay the price.

It hurts to watch.

Question 2: "The Boston Red Sox recently acquired catcher Victor Martinez. Do you think they would still be in the running for Mauer, should the Twins be unable to retain him?"

Answer 2: As far as I’m concerned every team that can afford to play the baiting game will in the quest for Joe Mauer. If I’m the Red Sox, I know Mauer is the best in the business and one of the game’s top 10 players, so I go for him. Martinez always has the option of become a full-time first baseman.

Twins Down Now, May Be Out Tomorrow

Losses continue to mount.
The starting pitching with the exception of Scott Baker is crumbling. Francisco Liriano will never again resemble his dominant 2006 self, nor may he ever be a reliable arm in the rotation again (his 11 losses are a major league worst, as is his 5.63 ERA, among pitchers who have hurled at least 100 innings).
And guys like Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla continue to appear in Minnesota's lineup.
The present is bad, despite sitting just 4.5 games out of first place with a 53-55 record.
The future, well that looks worse.
I hesitate to bet on my bold prediction made earlier in the week -- the Washington Nationals will have a better record than the Twins in 2011 -- because the new stadium will bring in additional revenue as new fans emerge among people who enjoy the outdoors, comfortable leg room and backrests, are interested in checking out the team's new digs and any or all of them in between.
With that money the Twins will be able to acquire some mid-level talent and, hopefully, before the start of next season, when the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers start calling, to lock up Joe Mauer for life.
If Twins management creates another mess like it did of the Johan Santana situation, failing to lock up the ace long-term before his market value could truly be assessed, Mauer will walk.
Or, he'll get traded for a bunch of ruffian, mediocre prospects 29 other MLB teams want nothing to do with.
Mauer loves the Cities, sure. He cherishes the idea of playing in front of his family and friends in his hometown, no doubt. He's likely a model citizen that many can rightfully look up to.
But he's not stupid.
No way he, let alone his agent, accepts a hometown discount if it's less than say 80 percent of the asking price.
Should the Yankees offer a seven-year, $136 million contract (which I think is a reasonable estimate of what may go down), the Twins would have to offer, at a minimum, in the range of seven years at $110 million. To go six years, maybe $120 million would cut it.
At least the incentive to re-sign is also there in the form of a protective power bat and pal, Justin Morneau, who is with the team through 2013.
The obvious disadvantage of playing in a small market is the inability to retain your top stars without shelling out top dollar. There comes a point when you just can't compete.
That's why you trade movable chips and stock up the farm system. You understand the concept, I'm sure.
Where once the Twins were strong, now could be their true undoing ... for a long time.
The Big League roster is loaded with undesirable talent of the players Minnesota would be willing to move, especially with the undoing of Liriano.
Because Minnesota can't use players at the big league level as bait -- think Chuck Knoblauch for Eric Milton, Pat Buchanan and Cristian Guzman or A.J. Pierzynski for Boof Bonser, Liriano and Joe Nathan -- or it botches opportunities like the aforementioned Santana deal, the entire farm system is reliant on drafting talent.
Nothing is wrong with the team's player development and scouting staff.
There are just fewer opportunities to acquire top prospects, making life difficult for the Twins organization as a whole.
That contrasts sharply to the days the farm system was thought to be a garden of ripe arms.
It all comes down to this: No talent on the farm and no money to bring it in leaves GM Bill Smith in quite the dilemma, hence the logic behind my on the breath prediction. As an aside, Washington has a loaded farm system when it comes to pitching and an already very talented, potent lineup.
The reason Minnesota couldn't be a player in the race for Jarrod Washburn at the trade dealine was because it didn't have the intrigue Detroit had to offer.
That move alone should bolster Detroit's chances of making it to October.
Chicago also improved its rotation, acquiring 2007 NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy last week from San Diego. Peavy is recovering from an ankle injury and won't be back until late August at the earliest.
He's a good pitcher, better than Washburn, but hasn't been effective against AL Central teams, posting a 4.54 ERA in seven starts (up from a career 3.29 mark).
Going from pitching in about as pitcher friendly as you can get at Petco Field to one of the most homer-happy parks in U.S. Cellular won't help.
He'll be a solid front end of the rotation guy, not unstoppable.
Chicago gave up way too much to get him and he won't really factor in to this year's playoff race. Should the Sox make it to the postseason, which is a good possibility, Peavy will be a asset to have. He's also signed through 2013.
Enjoy the move outdoors Minnesota, because the sun could very well be the only thing shining over the Twins for years to come.