Sunday, November 30, 2008

The Awful-season

Jostle your memory. Think back.
When was the last time the Minnesota Twins had a decent free agent sign, an everyday player inked to a deal he repaid with a strong performance?

Figure it out? The answer should consist of very few names. (For your enjoyment a list of every sign since 1996 -- the good, mostly bad -- appears in the previous blog post -- as soon as my laptop gets fixed).
It's true, Minnesota Twins management and minor league scouts have been terrific over the years finding and developing talent. When it comes to acquiring ready-made talent, the Twins, lacking funds, fail to cash in. Think Adam Everett and Mike Lamb this year. Think Rondell White and Tony Batista last. The list goes on ... .
The Twins have needs to fill at third base and in the bullpen ahead of Joe Nathan. Possibly bringing back Casey Blake to play the hot corner has been discussed. There's Joe "Plays Half the Season" Crede and Adrian "Underachieving and Overpaid" Beltre may be on the trading block -- a possible exchange for Michael Cuddyer and a Nick Blackburn could be arranged. Rafael Furcal would make a nice shortstop and leadoff hitter, but he's asking probably $15 million per season for three or more. The turf for one may prevent him from playing again (he missed much of 2008 with a bad hamstring while playing on grass). Then there's Nomar "Not the same, never healthy"Garciaparra.
For acquisitions to play third base that's pretty much it. Check out the FA list.
And based on the extensive list of Harry Dunn's and Lloyd Christmas' acquired over the years, the Twins would be better suited to sit tight, to think instead about moving Cuddyer back to third base and having an outfield of Denard Span in right, Carlos Gomez in center and Delmon Young in left. Cuddyer was tolerable when starting at the position from 2004 through 2005. He played better defense than Brian Buscher and hit better than Nick Punto and Lamb. Or, they could go out and sign a guy like Aaron Boone. Yeah, that would work out.
There aren't really any answers on the market at middle-reliever, either. The seemingly impecunious Twins, let alone the liberal-spending Yankees, have no need to acquire over-the-hill pitchers with Isaiah Thomas (as a coach) command that comprise this year's free agent class.
The Twins do, nevertheless, need another arm in the pen with Pat Neshek gone for the entire season and Matt Guerrier serving injured wildebeast pitches to hungry lion hitters.
Again, Minnesota would be best served to dig from within its organization for help. Flame-thrower Anthony Swarzak or Kevin Mulvey (acquired in the deal for Johan Santana) could be used out of the bullpen while they adjust to the big leagues a la the way Glen Perkins started his career. Both pitched well with the Rochester Red Wings, the Twins' AAA affiliate. Swarzak went 5-0 in seven starts and posted a 1.80 ERA while Mulvey carried a 7-9 record and 3.77 ERA in 27 starts.
Minnesota could also part ways with left-hander Dennys Reyes as José Mijares proved he could readily handle tight-game situations, giving up just one run in 10 1/3 innings.
Here's what the Twins should do: Use the offseason to continue developing talent and use the extra cash to lock up some regulars for a long time.
Who would you rather have Sidney Ponson, White and Batista for six starts, two seasons and one month respectively, or Joe Mauer locked up through 2015?
Good call.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Always Next Year

Absolutely disgraceful.
Few words can describe the languid abomination that was Minnesota football Saturday night.
Then again, it's the Gophers. Performances like the 55-0 lashing to Iowa in the team's final game at the Metrodome have become as every bit part of the tradition as the chipmunk, called "Goldy Gopher," mascot.
The first half of the season was fun, riveting and successful.
The second: panic.
Coach Tim Brewster couldn't pull the parachute in time. As soon as the mist of uncertainty floated in through the open window and cloaked the team with fear, all was lost. The Adam Weber interception returned for the decisive touchdown in a loss to Northwestern acted as the trigger.
The Gophers stopped moving the ball, started making mistakes and ultimately took devastating hits in the loss column.
Four straight duds to end the season. And one painstakingly everlasting memory of the Dome.
Sharing a stadium with professional baseball and football stinks. The Gophers unleashed one more raspberry before the time-share terminated.
The opening of TCF Bank Stadium next year is the team's Eden, offering the chance to start over, the chance to form a new identity. With 19 starters expected to return next season, including a year the wiser Weber, the Gophers have a reason to believe that this time hope will seep into their lungs and fill them with confidence. If that doesn't work out. Well, there's always (the) next year.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

NL MVP Watch



Tomorrow's the big day, the day the NL MVP will be announced. Like last time, let's briefly break down the candidates ("Frontrunners"), then go over the highly possible, but undeserving potential winner (You'd Think So, But No Way") and the guy who made a strong case yet won't take home the award ("Blew It") before finishing with who I think should win ("My Pick"). Several players put up terrific indivual efforts on winning ballclubs, something missing across the board for the AL candidates, so the outcome isn't guaranteed to anyone.
Let's take a look at those who could win.

Frontrunners

Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
.312 AVG, 29 HRs, 106 RBI, .420 OBP


Why He's Deserving
Berkman mastered the game to where he was playing slow-pitch sotfball. He hit .471 in May and by the All-Star break was leading the National League with 79 runs and 73 RBI, all while hitting .347. He added speed to his game, too, stealing 15 bags by the Midseason Classic.
He was a staple in the lineup of a legitimate playoff contender, leading the National League in Wins Probability Added at 6.71* and finishing in the top-5 in hitting with runners in scoring position at .345.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
May is fine to remove arrows from your quiver, but you need to have some left in August and September. Berkman hit went through a homerless July, then a decent August, before playing sub-Mendoza Line baseball in September (.179 AVG). Overall, he hit just. 259 and seven homers in the second half.
Moreover, where Berkman's portfolio was strong, Albert Pujols' was stronger.

David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

.302 AVG, 33 HRs, 124 RBI, .390 OBP

Why He's Deserving

Wright's a .300/100R/30HR/100RBI threat every season. He did everything he could to keep the Mets afloat in the Wild Card and divisional race, increasing his average by 48 points from the first half to the second.
Overall, Wright quite possibly had his most productive season in what has been a tremendous young career.

Why It Could Be Someone Else

The twin help. Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado provided Wright with protection and gave the Mets the most productive trio of hitters in baseball.
Hovering over Wright's head is another September collapse of sorts. Not making the playoffs, even with the addition of Johan Santana, weighs heavily on the franchise's posterboy's MVP chances.

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
.357 AVG, 37 HRs, 116 RBI
, 1.114 OPS

Why He's Deserving
Baseball is a game of numbers. Pujols crunched them all -- with shredded ligaments in his elbow and a bad back at that. Tim Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal doesn't seem to believe that the player with the best numbers is the front-runner for MVP, but if you ignore numbers what do you have left? Try Prince Fielder finishing ahead of Pujols. Hmm. Interesting.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Pujols has a knack for finishing second. The standard has become if someone else has a monster season and Pujols is consistently great like usual, the other player will win.
He also didn't make the playoffs (if only the 86-76 Cardinals played in the NL West).

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
.285 AVG, 37 HRs, 106 RBI, 14 SB


Why He's Deserving
Braun had solid protection in Caliban who hit 34 home runs, including MLB-leading 18 after the sixth inning, but Braun carried the Brewers. He came up with timely hits and even turned in a solid year defensively with the move to left field. How bout that?

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Braun wasn't healthy for portions of the second-half and definitely wasn't the same. He batted .209 in September.
In a league of too many extraordinary gentlemen, Braun probably doesn't quite make the cut.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
.289 AVG, 27 HRs, 111 RBI


Why He's Deserving
Ramirez was the best player on the league's best team. His .360 average from the seventh inning on paced the league.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Like Braun, Wright, Delgado (whom I neglected to mention because teammate Wright should finish higher than he), and even Berkman, Ramirez was terrific, but not unique.

You'd Think So, But No Way

Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
.251 AVG, 48 HRs, 146 RBI

There's a telling truth behind Howard's numbers. Yes, he led the major leagues in home runs and RBI, again. Yes, he hits well with runners in scoring position (.320). And yes, he did carry the team to the postseason with an 11 dinger, 32 RBI September outburst to go with a .352 average.
He also struck out 29 percent of the time he stepped up to the plate. A guaranteed out 199 times. Whoever says September numbers are the most important (cough, Hadricourt, cough), has got to be fooling themselves. Someone had to keep the Phillies in the hunt while Howard looked like Christy Brown trying to hit a baseball. No doubt the stretch run is important, slightly more so than the early months, but the best players, an MVP, are those who can produce for an entire season.
Twenty-eight players ranked ahead of Howard in WPA, giving a realistic look that maybe Howard isn't as valuable to a team as, say Pujols, even Russell Martin.
No MVP has ever had a batting average below .269.
Also keep in mind there's serious argument that Chase Utley is the more valuable Philly. George W. Bush seems to think so.

Blew It

Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
.396 AVG, 17 HRs, 53 RBI, 1.232 OPS in 53 games

Too bad he played in the American League until the trading deadline.
Look at the stat line above and add this to the equation: Manny batted .450 with runners in scoring position and two outs and .463 with runners in scoring position. He slugged .789 and got on-base 49 percent of the time.
Talk about mammoth production.
Randy Moss and Manny seem so much alike: nonchalant and carefree. But when you change it up and break up the bore of the routine, they go to work like dynamite on bedrock.
Alas, as great as Manny's numbers with the Dodgers were, two months doesn't make the entire season. Just ask Berkman.

My Pick

Pujols, hands down. Nobody put together as consistent and dominant numbers as the Cardinals' first baseman for a full season's worth of games. He makes everyone else around him better, too.
Look at what once washed up prospect Ryan Ludwick, who hit sub-.200 in the three weeks Pujols was out of the lineup, and Rick Ankiel did with Pujols around. Sounds like an MVP to me.

*Refer to the AL MVP blog for a description of what WPA means exactly

Gophers Axed in Madison

Gophers in control
Tighten up, meltdown ensues
Badgers retain Axe

(A Haggy Haiku)

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Gophers Dig Hole

What was that?
So much for the hype that Minnesota had turned things around this season.
The Gophers resembled a Kige Ramsey special report about "How to save on gas ... money." One first down by halftime. That's it -- against the Wolverines, possibly the worst team Michigan has assembled in the last 25 years.
With a test at Wisconsin next weekend before finishing against an Iowa team that just upset the Hercules of the Big Ten Penn State, the Gophers could now be looking at a trip to Tempe, Ariz., or worse, a journey to Antenora in Detroit, Mich., instead of a January bowl paradise.

Friday, November 7, 2008

AL MVP

Baseball is over for the year. Starting with Gold Glove winners announced the past two days, this is the time awards and their winners are unveiled.
The award that concerns this post is MVP. Since there are two awards, there will be two blog entries. Let's start in the American League.
The breakdown will go as follows: "Frontrunners" followed by "You'd Think So, But No Way" and "Blew It" before finishing with "My Pick."

Frontrunners

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
.328 AVG, 85 RBI, .413 OBP


Why He's Deserving
Mauer led the AL in batting average for the second time in three seasons reducing the gap between a catcher winning the award from 76 to one. Cool Joe was even better in pressure situations (two outs with runners in scoring position) batting at a .361 clip. Defensively, he committed three errors and threw out 36.3 percent of potential base stealers, third best in the league.
He mentored an inexperienced rotation heading into the season and developed it into a formidable fivesome, propelling the Twins to within a game of the playoffs when preseason expectations were on par with a blind date.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Numbers talk. Mauer hit nine home runs. Statistically, he wasn't the best player on his team -- a distinction held by first baseman Justin Morneau (who would have made the list if not for a 1-for-20 conclusion to the season when the team was vying for the AL Central title). When it comes down to voting, the quality of the team is also considered. The Twins nearly made the postseason. Since 1990, only Alex Rodriguez, in 2003, and Cal Ripken, in 1991, have won the AL MVP and not made the playoffs.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

.326 AVG, 17 HRs, 83 RBI, 20 SB

Why He's Deserving

Injuries riddled the Red Sox lineup this season and Manny Ramirez left for Los Angeles. Pedroia was the hanger that held the lineup in place. He hit for power -- slugging .547 after the All-Star Break -- average and stole bases. The 5-9, 180 pound secondbaseman batted cleanup a few times.
He played Gold Glove defense. And don't forget, the Red Sox played into October.

Why It Could Be Someone Else

The Red Sox are deep. If Pedroia didn't carry the team someone else would've. Sure, David Ortiz missed a few months and never fully regained his swing. J.D. Drew missed the stretch run. Mike Lowell was in and out of the lineup. Ramirez was gone by August. But the Sox got Jason Bay. Kevin Youkilis was always there.
A team full of Brandon Inge's and Adam Everett's could still win games. Jon Lester and Dice-K were brilliant. The backend was good, too, masking an average season from ace Josh Beckett.
It all amounts to Pedroia having a hard time standing alone as the guy.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
.304 AVG, 32 HRs, 130 RBI


Why He's Deserving
The feel-good story in baseball this season, Hamilton unearthed his five-tool potential. By the All-Star break, Hamilton was a serious Triple Crown threat, batting .310 to go with 21 dingers and 95 RBI. Hamilton exhibited his Zeus-like strength at the Home Run Derby. The Big Brown of baseball's power show, and other Derby, belted a record-shaking 28 first round home runs, including 13 in a row.
At season's end, Hamilton led the league in RBI and placed in the top 12 in home runs and average. Youkilis and Aubrey Huff were the only other two hitters to finish in the top 12 of all three categories.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
He played for the Texas Rangers, a ballclub that owned the worst team ERA in baseball. Not Hamilton's fault, but it contributes to an average 79-83 record, which hurts.
Hamilton didn't play any games that counted, games that other candidates experienced. The pressure of a race didn't exist, making the game easier to play.
When Ian Kinsler was in the lineup, Hamilton was unbelievable. After Kinsler went down with a sports hernia injury, Hamilton became mortal. Kinsler was the team's catalyst -- just as important as the one who drives him home.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
.247 AVG, 31 HRs, 102 RBI


Why He's Deserving
Evan Longoria may be the Rays' MVP of the future, but Pena is head-above leader in Tampa Bay.
His power came alive in the second half -- the one that counts -- and his defense is always there. Pena batted .247, but he finished second among hitters in the American League in Wins Probability Added -- a statistic developed to see how valuable a player is in tight situations by determining, as you might guess, the number of games he wins during a season.
Lifting the franchise off the couch after 10 years of watching others succeed, Pena not only helped the Rays to a playoff appearance, he brought a World Series appearance to St. Petersburg.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
His average. Pena added four-plus wins to the team's record. OK. The last time a hitter won the MVP award with a sub-.250 average was, well, never. Roger Maris batted .269 in 1961. He also hit a then-record 61 home runs that year. Sorry Pena.

You'd Think So, But No Way

Francisco Rodriguez, Closer, Los Angeles Angels
62 Saves, 2.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 77Ks/68.1 IP


Rodriguez is the new single-season record-holder for saves in a season with 62. Much has been said about him receiving votes, possibly taking home the award for closing down over half of the best team in baseball's wins.
Hold up.
Saves are one of the most overrated statistics in baseball. A late-innings reliever gets a "hold" for securing a three-run or fewer lead. Same concept as a save, but 2008 hold leader Carlos Marmol isn't spoken of in the light Rodriguez is.
No one cares.
For some reason saves seem like a magical number. Yes, it does calibrate the number of times a pitcher has held onto a "close" lead in the ninth inning. Without good starting pitching and defense and mediocre hitting, games wouldn't be close enough for a closer to have value.
Any votes Rodriguez receives should be divided among his teammates.
Never mind 22 of his saves came with a three-run cushion and 21 more with a pair of tallies to spare. He wasn't the best pitcher in the American League -- undoubtedly held by Indians pitcher Cliff Lee, who should win the CY Young Award -- let alone best closer in baseball.
That doesn't sound like an MVP.
Rodriguez saved 62 ballgames. He blew seven. Brad Lidge saved 41. He blew zero. OK, Brad Lidge pitched in the National League.
When it comes to WPA, Rodriguez isn't No. 1 among AL closers. Mariano Rivera is, followed by Joakim Soria, Bobby Jenks, then Rodriguez.
Put the MVP talk to rest, Rodriguez's season was memorable, not game-changing.

Blew It

Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox
.288 Avg, 36 HRs, 100 RBI, .956 SLG

Without a doubt, the hands down winner of this race heading into September. He then decided to get angry over one measly pop-up against the best pitcher of 2008, Cliff Lee, punched his bat and broke his wrist. Season over. Although his numbers stack up to league leaders Alex Rodriguez, Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, AND his team made the playoffs, he wasn't there for the stretch run, diminishing his value.

My Pick

It's got to be Mauer. A catcher can change the game both offensively and defensively by calling a good game. Mauer is arguably the best there is at both.
He played games that mattered in September, missing the postseason by a one-game playoff and one Nick Blackburn mistake (the Twins starter gave up a home run to Jim Thome in the 1-0 loss).
Thanks to Mauer's .413 OBP, Morneau was given the opportunity to drive in runs, which he did.
For those not sold on his downright lousy power (nine roundtrippers), Mauer led the league in WPA. Simply, on a team that didn't have dominant hitters around him other than Morneau, hence the 85 RBI, Mauer radiated greatness.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Real-Life Waterboy

This is a great story, magnified by the fact he helped Texas Tech upset No. 1 Texas 39-33 Saturday night.
Here's the abbreviated version in haiku form.

Year's free rent for kick
New direction after make
Becomes Red Raider

(A Haggy Haiku)

Speaking of the Red Raiders, how bout that performance? Everyone following college football knows the job Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree have done in Lubbock, Texas. Finally drawing the attention nationally of the networks, people got to see first hand the two in action.
It's pretty apparent Mike Leach's stars are Raymond Babbit ("Rain Man") special.
So is the Tech offensive line. Texas' front four is nasty, yet Harrell had all kinds of time to find his receivers downfield.
Home against No. 9 Oklahoma State next week and at No. 4 Oklahoma the following will provide many viewers more opportunities to see the Red Raiders play. Whether Tech can retain its No. 2 ranking during this upcoming stretch is hard to say.
Watching the Red Raiders play is exciting enough.

Poor Man's Moss


Bernard Berrian is everything the Vikings hoped.
Since being held without a catch Week 2 against the Colts, Berrian has recorded 78 or more yards receiving in six straight games, including three 100-plus efforts. A touchdown reception Sunday gives him four in as many contests.
At 6-1, he's not going to out jump many like Moss. He does have excellent straight line speed, however, and has legitimized himself as a reliable receiver for Gus Frerotte and the Minnesota offense. Berrian ranks second in the NFL in yards per catch at 20.7, following his two catch, 104 yard effort against Houston.
Missing a legit deep-threat since Randy Moss in 2004 to compliment a prolific ground attack, the Vikings spent the money to bring in Berrian.
So far, he's been worth every penny, helping the Vikings recover from an 0-2 start.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Woe to the Badgers

Not again.
Not this.
Not now.
Wisconsin has reached levels of dreadful few thought possible. It's natural disaster bad, a ride with Charon across the River Styx bad. And one is culpable: coach Bret Bielema.
Holding an 11-point advantage on Michigan State in the fourth quarter the Badgers seemingly were coming out of the funk that dragged them to an 0-4 start in the Big Ten.
Leave it to the '08 Badgers to pull a disappearing act with no curtain or trap door. Like magic, UW lost. There wasn't an encore -- except from those bleeding green and white.
Two plays stand out: a 38-yard completion to tight end Charlie Gantt on third-and-17 with 8:51 to play and Wisconsin ahead 24-13, and a holding penalty on third-and-short late in the game that cost the Badgers a lead-cushioning field goal try.
Not since 1996 had Wisconsin blown a double-digit fourth quarter edge at the start of the season. It has happened twice in six games.
Not since October 20, 2001 versus Illinois had Wisconsin lost a game when leading in football's version of "Miller Time," the fourth quarter.
It has happened three times this season.
Wisconsin has been in these said games -- against Michigan, Ohio State and now Michigan State -- so talent isn't the trouble.
A letdown is clearly occurring. Wisconsin is not executing, nor is it stepping up, particularly on defense, in pressure situations. When the Badgers have needed a stop, one isn't readily available;
too much immaturity amongst the starters.
The position coaches and coordinators are responsible for in-game execution and player development. Bielema oversees them.
The winningest Big Ten coach in a debut season seems to have allowed early success trigger the auto-pilot mechanism in his head. Wisconsin has crashed.
Bielema continues to hold man crushes on less talented players (although it has lessened in recent weeks), while the true play-makers watch from the sidelines. Think P.J. Hill over John Clay.
He's stubborn.
Paul Chryst's pro-style offense -- a fullback, not a receiver constitutes the 11th man on the field on offense -- and archaic play-calling are cancerous to the team's overall success, yet Bielema sticks by his friend.
The saying goes, "You can't teach an old dog new tricks." Good. Bielema's one of the youngest head coaches at the Division I level.
Maybe he'll learn.
Until then, don't get too excited when the Badgers are up big in the fourth quarter. They may just mimic what Latrell Sprewell did to P.J. Carlesimo: choke.

Doing His Part


Dustin Sherer is the best Wisconsin has these days.
As recently as 10 days ago that seemed like a pretty depressing reality. But since a rough debut October 18 against Iowa where he turned the ball over twice through the air, Sherer, for the most part, has been steady.
He led the team to a victory Homecoming Weekend against Illinois and did his part in Wisconsin's quest to knock off No. 21 Michigan State.
Sherer isn't going to win the Badgers ballgames with his arm, and probably won't with his fleet-feet like an Adam Weber or Daryll Clark. He doesn't need to. He shouldn't have to.
Wisconsin's pro-style offense is designed to run the ball. The quarterback's job is to complete passes to open receivers and manage the game. Limit mistakes.
Sherer has done that. The defense on key series and today, the offensive line, haven't done their part.
Wisconsin isn't going anywhere. With no one else to go to at quarterback for the foreseeable future, depending on the development of redshirt freshman Curt Phillips, there is comfort in knowing that Sherer is.

Minnesota's Misstep


What was Tim Brewster thinking?
On its own 29 in a tie game with 24 seconds showing on the clock, Brewster opted to throw the ball. A deflection and 48 yard run-back the other way sent the Gophers home shocked and empty-handed.
The progress Brewster has made this season for turning the Gophers into a Bowl-bound team in the Big Ten after a 1-11 rookie season took a hit.
He should know better. His offensive coordinator should know better.
Fairly deep in your own territory late in a tie game you play for overtime. Run out the clock.
Think about it.
There's 24 seconds left in the game, and to put yourself in a position to win via a field goal from Joel Monroe, whose career long is 54 yards, at least 34 yards need to be gained.
Yes, Weber has been Robin Hood accurate this year, throwing three INTs in 243 attempts heading into Saturday's game. But don't take the risk.
At 3-1 in the Big Ten, the Gophers, with a favorable schedule ahead, had an opportunity to legitimize themselves as the third best team in the conference; a January bowl likely awaited.
Instead, Minnesota slips back into a crowded middle class.
In college football, every game counts, every decision crucial.
Run the ball. Play to live another down.