NFL Observations: Week 16

Matt Ryan looks down at the postseason competition

The penultimate week of the NFL regular season provided closure for some and further muddied the playoff picture for others.
Atlanta is the team to beat in the NFC, breezing past Detroit 31-18 Saturday night to secure home-field advantage.
Minnesota, with an impressive win over flip-flopping Houston, can secure a playoff spot with a divisional win over Green Bay next week. Few saw this happening; I pegged the Vikings for six or seven wins. Most pundits had Minnesota winning between four and  six times, including Sports Illustrated's Peter King.
Elsewhere, a couple of NFC East teams failed to assert themselves in the playoff chase.
New York further compromised their playoff chances with the second straight box office flop, falling to Baltimore 33-14. Last week the G-men lost 34-0 to Atlanta. That's OK, though. Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are all or nothing types. They either reach the playoffs on a neutral note and then win the Super Bowl, or they don't bother qualifying for the postseason.
Interdivisional rival Dallas cannot generally do much right EVER in key situations.
Sunday Dallas lost to New Orleans, fighting back from several deficits to force overtime, only to lose 34-31. The Cowboys are like a Scantron exam where 50 answers in a row are correct, but the rest of the test is half wrong; they do a lot of things right, but in the end fail to make the grade.

In the AFC, Indianapolis defeated the 2-13 Kansas City Chiefs Chumps 20-13. Ho hum. Another win for a mediocre team who capitalized on a schedule softer than a chinchilla's fur. More on that in a bit.
Baltimore clinched the AFC North with the W over New York and Cincinnati grabbed a playoff spot with an interception of Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
Division winners Denver and New England also improved their records.

Playoff Picture
It seems so often there are teams that reach the playoffs that do not belong. There are others whose record is good or even great, but you just get a sense things won't go their way once the postseason gets underway.
This year, there could be several pretenders.
New England, New York (G), San Francisco, Chicago and  Minnesota all have strength of schedules above .500. Seattle and the Giants are the only NFL teams with strengths of victory above .500.
For the teams aforementioned, reaching the playoffs is or will be -- in the case of those who have not yet locked up a spot -- well deserved.
For others, it's a bit less clear.
Atlanta, the team with the NFL's best record, has played the easiest schedule so far this season. Moreover, the Falcons strength of victory ranks fourth lowest in the NFC.
The AFC, sans the Brady Bunch, is worse.
Let's start with the Wild Cards. Cincinnati and Indianapolis have not played many good teams and have not beaten anybody worth mentioning. Sure their stories are moving, particularly Indy's rise from worst to 10-5 in one year behind the inspiration of an ill head coach and the talent of 2012's No. 1 pick. Just don't buy that these two teams are actually good. Their strength of victory ranks fourth and fifth worst in the entire NFL.
Speaking of which, everyone wants to anoint Peyton Manning as a demigod for overcoming multiple neck surgeries and a dismissal from a Colts team he resurrected en route to another 12-win season, this time with Denver.
A closer look shows he, too, has played against some mighty lame ducks. While the .480 strength of schedule is about league average, the Broncos strength of victory is near the bottom -- 10th worst in the NFL.

What this all means for those looking to the postseason
Based on regular season results, New York (with lots of help), San Francisco and Seattle have the best chances of making an impact in the NFC. And New England is the clear front-runner to reach the Super Bowl out of the AFC.

Individual Performances
Week 16 produced several new records. Calvin Johnson topped Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yards record by going for 225 yards Saturday night. For all the talk about Adrian Peterson eclipsing the 2,000 mark, Megatron is primed to reach that total as a receiver. Right now he's got 1,892.
Peterson, meanwhile, will have a tough time breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record -- going for 86 in Sunday's win to remain 208 yards away -- but is still a strong bet to become the seventh rusher in NFL history to break 2K. He averages 127 YPG and needs 102 versus Green Bay next week.

Jason Witten quietly set the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tight end. Now with 103, he passed Tony Gonzalez's 2004 effort of 102. Also of note: Houston's Andre Johnson surpassed 100 catches for the fourth time in his career.
Drew Brees became the first QB to top 4,500 yards passing in three consecutive seasons. And some special teamers kicked their way into history Sunday. Minnesota's Blair Walsh stands alone with the most field goals made of 50-plus yards in one season. Washington's Kai Forbath blasted his 17th consecutive field goal Sunday to start his career -- another NFL record.

Quick Hits
The Arizona Cardinals blocked a meaningless 20-yard field goal attempt by the Bears late in the fourth quarter and returned it for a touchdown. With Chicago already up by 22 at that point, the decision seemed pretty dumb. Most teams go for it on fourth-down instead.

Seattle would not be in a position to win the NFC West but for the controversial touchdown call that went its way in Week 3 and essentially ended the labor dispute between the league and referees.

Vikings Lose, Become a Statistic

Over the last 10 years only two other teams managed what the Vikings did Sunday.
Minnesota got more than 200 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson yet still lost to Green Bay 23-14.
Teams since 2002 are now 57-3 when an individual rusher exceeds two bills. Peterson ran for 210 on 21 carries.
Christian Ponder struggled as his receivers played like the checkout lines on Black Friday -- never open.
The second year quarterback left at least six points on the field with two interceptions inside of the Packers 20.
Everson Griffen, a Vikes special teamer and defensive end, cost Minnesota another three spot, at a minimum. He was flagged for a late hit penalty deep in Green Bay territory just after Aaron Rodgers released a ball ultimately intercepted by Jared Allen.
Just as Detroit coughed up a 12 point fourth quarter lead to the upstart Indianapolis Colts only to lose on the final play of the game Sunday, Minnesota struggles to excel in key situations.
All that means aside from another remarkable performance by Peterson a year removed from major reconstructive knee surgery, is the Vikings remain steps and other playmakers away from being considered a playoff contender.

Touchdown King Picked Apart: Falcons Demonize Saints

Roll back the clock. It's not just fall.
Drew Brees failed to throw a touchdown pass.
What seemed to be as close to a guarantee this side of death and taxes, Brees was stifled and harassed to the tune of five picks and no scores by the NFC's best Atlanta Falcons Thursday night.
Atlanta won 23-13.
Brees wasn't without opportunities to extend his NFL record streak, but he could not find the end zone for the first time in 54 games.
Socialists won the national elections in Greece and Brett Favre, off to a 4-0 start, was preparing to face the Green Bay Packers for the first time as a member of rival Minnesota.
The date: Oct. 4, 2009.
That's how long ago it has been since Brees failed to pass to paydirt.
More importantly than the broken streak, Brees' struggled left New Orleans at 5-7 and looking for answers with another tough matchup on the horizon at Metlife Stadium versus the New York Giants.
Ain't that a shame.

Yanks Outlast Orioles

Back and forth all year

Game 5 determines their fates

Yanks outlast the O's

(A Haggy Haiku)

Tied at two after four American League Division Series games and at 11 after 22 season-long matchups, C.C. Sabathia delivered the decisive blow to Baltimore for New York.

The Orioles once again fell one game short of the Bombers just as they did during the regular season. 

Pitching a one-run complete game, Sabathia lifted his team to a 3-1 win Friday against a scrappy, small-time Baltimore squad that went down only when baseball's rules said it had to; there are no more at-bats, no more innings to play for a divisional series Game 5 loser. 

Raul Ibanez, Ichiro and Curtis Granderson provided the offense for New York's workhorse starter, who struck out nine in raising his postseason record with baseball's most storied franchise to 7-1. 

Incredible Cardinals Win Again

The Cardinals are like a spring.
Every time you put pressure on them and seemingly squeeze the air out of them, they recoil with devastating ferocity.
Six elimination games in two years, six victories.
The defending world champs, down to their final strike twice Friday night, scored four runs in the top of the ninth inning to erase a 7-5 deficit and advance to the National League Championship Series.
St. Louis, unfazed, overcame a 6-0 deficit in Washington before a record raucous crowd turned silent at Nationals Park.
The Nationals and closer Drew Storen let their guard down. Inexperience can play dirty tricks on the mind. It instills a false sense of security, a phantom sense of invincibility.
Daniel Descalso provided the game-tying, two out hit, which pinballed off of shortstop Danny Espinosa's glove with the bases loaded. Pete Kozma followed with a two-run single down the right field line.
Calm under fire.
Experience and skillful.
Incredible run.

(A Haggy Haiku)

Notes: St. Louis with the win advances to the LCS for the seventh time in 10 years. The 6-0 deficit is the largest overcome in an elimination game in MLB history. And how about the slate of division series matchups? All of them went the distance. There were multiple walk-off hits and several extra-inning games.
Baseball is at its best this year... so far.

Baseball Playoff Predictions

Play-In Games

St. Louis over Atlanta
Texas over Baltimore

ALDS

Detroit over Oakland in 4
New York over Texas in 5

NLDS

St. Louis over Washington in 4
San Francisco over Cincinnati in 5

ALCS

New York over Detroit in 6

NLCS

San Francisco over St. Louis in 6

World Series

New York over San Francisco in 7

Cabrera: Baseball's Triple Threat

Effortless success
Rare breed of power, average
Triple Crown Winner

(A Haggy Haiku)

Miguel Cabrera is the newest member of an elite club.
The Tigers slugger won the Triple Crown. He becomes the first hitter to lead the league in average, home runs and RBI in the same season since 1967 when Carl Yastrzemski did it. Only 13 different players have accomplished the milestone.  
Cabrera mashed his way to a .330 average to go with 44 home runs and 139 RBI.
Unlike contenders in recent years past, Cabrera received minimal media attention for his feat.
Granted, Cabrera doesn't seek the spotlight. But those who cover MLB also focused very little on the superlative third baseman.
The market size hasn't been the issue. Baseball writers groveled over Justin Verlander, Cabrera's teammate's body of work a year ago. They questionably gave the pitcher league MVP, an honor Cabrera has never received and likely will not be rewarded for this historical campaign, either.
AL MVP is reserved for rookie Mike Trout.
No matter, Cabrera doesn't mind.
He'll just continue to hit his way into baseball lore.

"Princess Warrior" Dies Before Meeting Big Time Rush

A Wadena girl’s dying wish to meet Big Time Rush was going to be granted Thursday, but there just wasn’t enough time.
Kare 11 reported eight-year old Jane Fiemeyer died just hours before her scheduled video chat with the Nickelodeon band.
Jane was diagnosed with leukemia in August of 2011. After numerous attempts at treatment, doctors told her recently that the disease was incurable. Jane returned home for hospice care Wednesday.
Her mother, Jil Fiemeyer, spurred a social media wave this week in an effort to grant Jane her wish to meet the boy band. Friends, family and strangers from all over campaigned to Big Time Rush on behalf of Jane.
The band responded to the outpouring of support and had arranged a video chat with her over Skype Thursday. The band, which portrays hockey players from Minnesota on their show, was reportedly even planning to rearrange their tour schedule to surprise Jane with a visit Monday.
But Jane died peacefully late Thursday morning before BTR could fulfill her wish.
Jane was able to watch a video the band made specifically for her.
Doctors had speculated earlier in the week that Jane’s timeline could be anywhere from days to a month.
She made it just one day.
The “Princess Warrior Fund” has been set up in Jane’s memory. Money raised will benefit cancer organizations. She also raised money for children’s cancer research by making vibrant duct tape wallets. They can be ordered by contacting walletsfromjane@gmail.com.

Movie Review: American Reunion

American Pie is back. 

Everyone has grown up, though not matured. Instead of watching teenagers acting obnoxious and sex-starved, American Reunion is about 30 years olds engaging in sophomoric debauchery. 

It doesn’t work.  

American Reunion is outrageous and dimwitted, but devoid of any humor. The storyline is odd, predictable and fails to deliver the least bit of entertainment. Truthfully, the film is like drinking hard alcohol all night: the gut rot gets progressively worse with each passing moment. 

Don’t bother going to the Reunion to see how everyone turned out. 

Pack Leaders

In baseball money starts -- unless it's attached to Vernon Wells or a back of the bullpen guy.
Yes, closers and only a select few players with unsightly contracts are excused from playing from the get-go. In the former's case, they are paid to preserve ninth inning leads and save games. As for the latter, well, Wells and others are such a detriment to the team's overall success, management feels it is far better to bench  them than witness incongruous, appalling failure time and time again.
Wells is owed $63 million over the next three seasons. He rarely sees the field because he can no longer hit for average or power and the Angels have MVP-candidate and rookie Mike Trout to take his place in the lineup.
Other teams aren't so lucky.
Since the end of the steroid era, pitching ERA has been much better. In the more potent American League, 18 hurlers have ERAs below 4.00. The National League has an incredible 39. Yet somehow, even with the changes to the game and better success rates among pitchers, Minnesota Twin Nick Blackburn struggles to record outs.
A 2008 ESPN piece suggests that one Mike Parrott had the sixth worst season ever among athletes in 1980,  and arguably owns the single worst pitching effort in MLB history. Parrott finished 1-16 with a 7.28 ERA for the Seattle Mariners. Opponents hit .356.

Photo Courtesy of talk-sports.net

Blackburn is paid $4.75 million this year to be just as woeful. League average is $3.31 million through 2011. In 18 starts, Blackburn owns a 7.33 ERA and .334 batting average against.
Need further proof of how bad that is? If an average hitter faced Blackburn all season, he would hold the fifth highest average in baseball and second highest in the AL.
Somehow the Twins do not have any other arms to start.
Speaking of not having other options, the Chicago White Sox have a player with the third most strikeouts among all active players and one of the best pitchers. Unfortunately, they aren't the same guy. Adam Dunn has 167 strikeouts in little more than 400 at-bats. Southpaw Chris Sale is 14-3 with a 2.60 ERA. He has struck out 132 in 138.2 innings. MLB's strikeout leader is Justin Verlander, who has 174.
The beefy first baseman slash designated hitter does not come cheap. Dunn signed a four-year, $56 million contract with Chicago prior to the 2011 season.
Last year he set a modern day record among qualified candidates by hitting .159. This year, Dunn's .209 average is hardly a godsend, though his 33 home runs pace all hitters.

Photo Courtesy of fixmlb.org

Again, Big Donkey's troubles stem from making contact. Over the first 32 games of the season he struck out at least once for a total of 47 times. For comparison sake, the longest hitting streak in baseball this season was 26 games.
The only good that can come from having to play these particular (and relatively) big budget flops is their potential to play each other fairly often as members of rival Central Division teams.
More head-to-head matchups and maybe Blackburn and Dunn will both return closer to league average, even if their salaries don't.

Bryce Harper's All-Star Game Debut

Bryce Harper is a superstar in the making. At 19 years old, he became the youngest position player in Major League history to make an All-Star team. He swings hard, hustles, and shows poise offensively and defensively.

Yet, in his first Mid-Summer Classic, Harper looked his age. He got caught in a run-down after reaching on a walk in his first plate appearance and lost a routine fly ball in the bottom half of the inning, allowing Mike Napoli to reach. 

As to the claim everyone's focus at this year's game is the "who's better? Harper versus Mike Trout debate," like picking between Team Jacob or Team Edward, it's overblown. The biggest story of each All-Star Game is seeing all the stars of the league play on the same stage. Harper and Trout are no more intriguing than seeing Clayton Kershaw pitch or David Wright hit. 

If the goal was to make a memorable debut, Harper achieved it with those mistakes. 

Johan Santana No-Hits Cardinals

Fresh off surgery

Mets get major performance

Johan throws no-no

(A Haggy Haiku)

 

NBA Lottery Nonsense

All 14 NBA non-playoff teams found out their assigned seat for the June draft Wednesday, with the New Orleans Hornets catching the top spot.
The Charlotte Bobcats (7-59), which finished with the worst winning percentage in NBA history, will draft second.
Charlotte had a 25 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. New Orleans tied with Cleveland for the third poorest record in the NBA and had a 13.7 percent chance of winning.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will not be drafting in the top 14 despite having a bad enough record. Back in 2005, Minnesota shipped a conditional first round pick and Sam Cassell to the Clippers in exchange for Marko Jaric and Lionel Chalmers.
That pick was lottery protected for six years, until Wednesday.
Los Angeles won't be utilizing what turned out to be a No. 10 pick though, as the team traded it to the Hornets in the Chris Paul trade.
It's no surprise the draft position wasn't higher.
Minnesota has never drafted first. Since the lottery's inception in 1990, just four teams boasting the lowest winning percentage during the previous season captured the top pick.
Given Minnesota's misfortune in that regard during the team's 23-year history, Kevin McHale would have been wise then to have offered up Cassell and a future No. 1 for Jaric and Chalmers.
I kid of course, but hey, the Clippers might have still been waiting 23 years from now.

Conspiracy Theorists' Agora (Place of Assembly)

Something doesn't smell right.

It's not the stench of 36 deceased cats. Nor is it the smell of elderly people. 

The stink is pungent and overwhelming. 

That's it! It's the NBA!

THE LOTTERY

The NBA draft lottery took place last Wednesday night, and for the eighth consecutive year and 19th time in 23 years, a team other than the worst won the rights to the No. 1 pick.

New Orleans will draft in the top spot this year, a convenient result that should have conspiracy theorists grousing about the league. More on that later.

The Charlotte Bobcats, who at 7-59, finished with the lowest winning percentage in NBA history, will draft second. Michael Jordan's team had a 25 percent chance of fielding the top pick.

The Hornets tied for the third worst record in the league and had a 13.7 percent chance of winning.

Going back in recent history, the unfairness seems to swell like a sprained ankle.

A year ago, as the eighth worst team, the Clippers won the lottery. (Through a trade, Los Angeles begrudgingly passed it off to the Cleveland Cavaliers.)

More fantastical than even that was when the Chicago Bulls charged past eight others, including a Miami team with 18 fewer wins, to grab Chicago native Derrick Rose in 2008.

The year before was almost as screwy. Portland got Greg Oden with the first pick, despite being the seventh worst team. Seattle (now Oklahoma City) went from fifth to second, grabbing Kevin Durant before the team's move to a new city; and the Atlanta Hawks moved up from fourth to third. The three worst teams were stuck drafting No. 4-6.

But the greatest hoodwink had to be 1993. Orlando finished with the best record among non-playoff teams thanks to a rookie named Shaquille O'Neal. At 41-41, the Magic had nearly four times as many victories as bottom-feeder Dallas (11-71). Yet, despite the glaring disparity, the lottery ball turned up Disney.

At least changes were made after that surprise twist.

In 2006 and 2010, the fifth worst team landed in first place in the lottery sweepstakes. And in 2005, the Bucks of Milwaukee (30-52) bypassed five teams, including the 13-win Atlanta Hawks in taking Andrew Bogut.

Not since the Orlando Magic, in 2004, has the worst team actually selected first.

Overall, only four times has the lottery draft given the top pick to the previous season's worst team — Orlando in '04, Cleveland in '03 when it selected LeBron James, and Philadelphia twice, in 1996 and in 1990, the year the league adopted the weighted lottery system in place today.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES

There are plenty of drafts to feed this elephant in the room. From Rose and James getting picked by their hometown teams, to Cleveland scoring the No. 1 pick the year after the King's departure, the draft has certainly been marked with suspicious fingerprints.

Now this.

The NBA owns the Hornets. Stern runs the league. Ipso facto, Stern controls the team that just landed the No. 1 pick and chance to take an extraordinary talent in Anthony Davis of Kentucky.

Thickening the plot, the team that was coaxed into trading away Chris Paul, its franchise player and the NBA's best point guard prior to the start of last season, now has the necessary place in the welfare line to make a quick recovery.

FIXING THE STERN RULE

After the Magic scored the No. 1 pick in the '93 draft (then traded it Golden State), despite having but one chance to win, Stern adjusted the weight of the lottery.

He increased the worst team's chance to win from 16.7 percent to 25 percent; the best team's odds were lowered from 1.5 percent to .5 percent.

But the system is still glaringly flawed.

The probability of the lottery ball coming up is 25 percent. As it has played out, the team with the worst record lands it 17.4 percent of the time (not statistically significant).

That's not the issue. Neither are the conspiracy theories. Rather, it's that the share is just 25 percent.

For a man who quashed the Paul trade because he said more parity needs to exist and smaller market teams need a fighting chance, it's obnoxious that Stern continues to allow all 14 non-playoff franchises a shot at No. 1.

The best chance a bottom feeder has at improving and rostering stars is through the draft. Yet draft history shows the weakest few teams, namely, the worst one, do not benefit by the lottery system currently in place.

If the commish is so concerned about teams skimming off the top to ensure they have the worst record, which seems to be more of a knock on him for believing his league to be dishonest, keep the lottery.

Reduce it to the bottom-tier of teams, though.

THE MATH

To classify a bottom-tier team, let’s use basic statistics and standard deviation. Most data will be within two standard deviations of an average (in the NBA’s case, a .500 record). The intent of this new lottery concept isn’t to completely hand the worst team from that season the No. 1 pick, though. One standard deviation is a good place to start.

Comparing this past season's .500 mark (33 games) with the number of victories all 30 teams recorded in 2011-12 produces a standard deviation of 10.3.

Subtract that from 33. The result is 22.7 wins.

Let’s see where that number checks out with actual records from this past season. 

Six teams finished with a record worse than 22.7 wins (New Jersey, New Orleans, Charlotte, Sacramento, Washington and Cleveland).

Seems like a pretty reasonable number.

Toronto and Golden State would just miss the cut with 23 wins apiece.

Now let’s try the standard deviation rule for the 2010-11 season.

The cutoff would be 27 wins.

Again, six teams would make it. Not among them, the actual lottery winner Los Angeles Clippers.

The next step is figuring out how to fairly divide the chances at the top pick among these teams.

A sound concept would be to basically break down the shares by win totals.

For instance, Charlotte had seven wins this year. The next worst team had 20 — nearly three times more wins than the Bobcats.

Under this proposal, Charlotte would have odds nearly three times better than Washington of winning the lottery. The Wizards would then have only mildly better odds of getting the top spot, as compared to 21-win New Orleans and Cleveland. And so on.

Saving the mathematical explanation, Charlotte would receive a 37.7 percent chance of drafting in the first position. Washington would have a 13.2 percent chance, followed by the 12.6 percent chances of New Orleans and Cleveland and the 12 percent likelihoods of Sacramento and New Jersey.

For 2010-11, the six lottery-eligible teams were all similarly bad. Minnesota had 17 wins at one end. New Jersey and Sacramento had 24 at the other. While the odds would be in the Wolves' favor to snatch the first pick, they wouldn't be as favorable as Charlotte's this year.

The breakdown would go as follows: 20.7 percent to Minnesota; 18.6 to Cleveland; 16.0 to Toronto; 15.3 to Washington; and 14.7 to Sacramento and Jersey.

Ultimately, teams that finish the season in the second through sixth positions in the lottery sweepstakes would learn their percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick based on the ratio of wins they had compared to the worst team.

WHY THIS WORKS

Charlotte was bad this year because it lacked enough decent players. A No. 1 pick and the selection of Davis would help to fix that. 

The two questions that need to be addressed are, "what will prevent teams on the outside looking in of this proposal from intentionally losing games?" and "once teams know they are in the lottery grouping, what will prevent them from playing more lax?"

To the first question, since the standard deviation is based on end of the year data and there are a bunch of variables to consider (29 other teams), franchises would not know what the magic cutoff is until they've stopped playing. 

A team could intentionally lose and still miss out on a lottery chance.

To the second question, nothing can prevent these bottom feeders from quitting before the season is over. To the formula's credit, however, it would be silly to try and lose every game if five other teams are doing the same thing.

Someone's going to have to win. And given the competitive nature of most athletes, those teams are going to want to win as much as they can. 

And in the event they try as they might but find victories more elusive than Bigfoot, the standard deviation-based lottery system is set up to possibly bail them out. 

Finally Streak Ends, Wolves Win

Sink into spring gloom

April losses piled up

Wolves outlast Pistons

(A Haggy Haiku)

The Wolves at long-last ended their month of April woes, downing Detroit 91-80 Thursday night. The victory was Minnesota's 26th on the season and ends a run of 27 consecutive losses during the month of April, which dates back to 2009. 

It also snaps a season-worst 11-game losing streak. 

Nikola Pekovic led the way with 23 points. 

Justin Morneau Crushes in New York

Justin Morneau absolutely loves the new Yankee Stadium. 

It's a left-handed hitters cure-all. 

After blasting three homers in as many games this week, Morneau now has equaled his 2011 total in one-sixth the amount of games. 

As uncomfortable as he looked at the plate during the first week of the season, Morneau has turned it on of late to look every bit the guy who won an MVP award in 2006 and finished second in 2008. 

In 13 career games at the modern-day House That Ruth Built, Morneau is batting .458 with seven dingers and a 1.535 OPS. 

Let's see how he handles a new venue. 

"Warrior": A Movie Review

Sports and their subsequent storylines are less formulaic than movies would have you believe.

First there was “The Wrestler,” then “The Fighter,” and now “Warrior.”

Hollywood dabbled in an up-close look at the life of a washed up professional wrestler, followed by the life of a middling welterweight boxer and now two mixed martial artists.

Encompassing all three flicks is a noticeable existence bereft of some degree of a healthy familial relationship. At least “The Fighter” was biographical.

The movie “Warrior” follows the lives of two brothers related by blood, who couldn’t be further apart.

Afflicted by a dysfunctional upbringing and an alcoholic father (played by Nick Nolte), Tommy Conlon (Tom Hardy) and Brendan Conlon (Joel Edgerton) each separately struggle through their lives.

To begin the movie, Tommy returns to his father’s house after serving with the Marine Corps in Iraq, though he shows no sign of forgiving the parent who altered his life path and led to his mother’s early death.

Brendan is shown to be a family man and physics teacher who has fallen on tough economic times.  

He doesn’t let his father, who sobered up, into his life and has not corresponded with Tommy since they were teenagers.  

As the movie develops, both begin training for admittance to an international MMA tournament, primarily drawn by the $5 million pot.

While Tommy uses physicality to pulverize opponents, Brendan relies on Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Of course, both brothers reach the tournament, and despite being nobodies on an international stage, you can imagine what happens from there. Typical Hollywood.

Tommy’s success is believable enough, but Brendan’s seems to be a journey through a Disney kid’s movie. He found little success in his first UFC go-round years back. At 1,000-to-1 odds, his Brett Favre-like comebacks from being “done” are more predictable than death and taxes.
Compounding the issue, why is it that in film hard-earned lessons are practically always learned when the most is at stake? 

Thankfully, the acting is terrific, especially by Hardy, who spent months training with professional fighters to make the action sequences look realistic. He succeeded. So did Edgerton. The camerawork was superb, capturing the emotions of spectators, commentators, managers and fighters alike with a poignant flair.

The movie also rightfully pays tribute to MMA, a sport which is gaining wild popularity with the continued success of UFC.

Despite director Gavin O’Connor running out of fresh ideas and sticking to Hollywood’s inside-the-box thinking, the movie will leave you believing that even the worst grudges and differences are worth forgiving.  

Stupid Is On the Way to the NBA

Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY

If life gives you tests that you cannot pass, hey, just stop taking them and attempt to cash in your chips.
That's the route Fab Melo is taking.
Last week the 7-foot sophomore from Syracuse declared for the 2012 NBA Draft. Just as he so frequently skipped out on doing schoolwork this past season, Melo will avoid playing the final two years of his eligibility at Syracuse.
Melo missed three games in late January and the entire NCAA Tournament because of academic troubles.
When he played, the Brazilian averaged 7.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 blocks for the Orange.
Now the center will try to get an NBA team to ignore his character and work ethic issues to draft him for a healthy chunk of change.
According to ESPN, Melo is projected to be a late first round pick.
Even if he finds success on the court, his past decisions to shirk his responsibility as a student-athlete doesn't bode well in a league that sees so many of its players wind up broke just a few years after their playing days end.
Katherine Mansfield once said, "make it a rule of life never to regret anything and never to look back."
Perhaps down the road a more mature Melo will feel differently.

Minnesota Twins: Where's the Consistency?

To find success in the Big Leagues, a level of consistency must be achieved.
The Minnesota Twins won six division titles over a nine year span beginning in 2002 by piecing together teams built around throwing strikes, fielding well and playing small ball.
Then came the 2011 season. A rash of injuries, an equally inexperienced and lousy bullpen and a general regression by just about every player on the active roster led to a 99-loss season.
More of the same is taking shape this year.
And in Sunday's loss, capping a three-game sweep by the Texas Rangers, the amicable Ron Gardenhire did a dastardly job managing.
It may have only been one foible, but it was the difference in the game.
Stubbornly stricken by the lefty-lefty matchup, and trusting his recently reliable reliever, Gardy elected to keep Glen Perkins in the game to face Josh Hamilton with the tying run on third -- this despite the fact the former MVP was 5-for-11 with a homer and three RBI in his career against Minnesota's setup-man.
One pitch and a mighty cut later, the Rangers took the lead for good.
It makes little sense to go with traditionally favorable generic matchups in the later innings if the specific individuals involved have a significant history. In this instance, Hamilton consistently crushes Perkins like Grave Digger a clunker.
The fact Gardenhire kept the ball in the former Gophers' left-hand is baffling. It also makes what Gardenhire verbalized Monday surprising.
The Twins manager looked at the the specifics of the Yankees series and determined that he would not be playing Justin Morneau Tuesday because the slugger "stinks" when facing C.C. Sabathia, the named starter.
Before celebrating Gardenhire's improved scouting, remember he is also the manager who insisted on batting Carlos Gomez first. The guy's reasoning: Gomez caused mayhem on the base paths. That's all fine and good if Gomez could ever reach base to showcase his abilities. But he didn't hit for average and refused to walk.
While irksome, the managing mistake with Hamilton resulted in just one loss. In a 162-game schedule, only if the pitching staff actually consistently gets hitters out and the team competes, will the err possibly be relevant.

Wisconsin Badgers Nearly Perfect, Still Can't Win

Bo Ryan's ballclub has never defeated a top four-seed in the NCAA tournament.
Wisconsin played to a level higher than K2, making 14 3-pointers, including a stretch of six in a row in the second half, yet still fell short to the top-seeded Syracuse Orange 64-63 Thursday night.
Credit Ryan and his players for bringing their best to Boston in a tough Sweet 16 matchup.
Nonetheless, the result highlights yet again the Achilles heel of Badger basketball: the team cannot defeat the league's elite, unless just about everything goes in its favor.
Sometimes, like Thursday night, even near perfection isn't enough.
Certainly the long-ball was working for Wisconsin in the game, but akin to underperforming Duke teams of recent past (with the exception of 2010), becoming too reliant on it can be lethal.
Statistics show the father a player is from the basket, the greater the odds are of a miss.
Syracuse weathered Wisconsin's thunderstorm by continuing to drive the basket and creating open looks off the dribble.
The Badgers kept hucking them up from beyond the arc.
Bucky still had an opportunity to win following a missed one-and-one by Syracuse. Senior Jordan Taylor, however, settled for a off-balance deep 3 that barely grazed iron.
Ben Brust tracked down the loose ball and launched a rainbow from the baseline that sailed wide just before the buzzer sounded.
The Orange advance to the Elite Eight to play the winner of Cincinnati and Ohio State.

Hugo: A Movie Review

The movie "Hugo" stars young actors, is family friendly and teaches good values, but it is not intended for kids.
The film lacked the whimsy, adventure and imagination typically lining a flick for preteen audiences.
In fact, there was very little action other than a scene where Hugo and new friend Isabella steal away into a movie theater, and the hero's constant effort to sidestep the station inspector.
Instead, the film focused its lens on itself.
The story follows an orphan clock winder in Paris who steals parts from a train station toymaker in an effort to rebuild an automaton, left to him by his deceased father.
After fixing the mechanical man with the help of the toymaker's goddaughter, Hugo learns that the man who caught him taking parts from his shop used to be a filmmaker.
From there, "Hugo" spends more than an hour investigating and reliving old films.
While romantic to a degree in its original story line and interesting to see old feature films successfully intertwined inside of a modern-day one, "Hugo" is slow-paced propaganda.
Watch the penultimate scene of the movie to understand.
It's almost as though the filmmakers used a child's quest to find closure with his father and a new family to applaud and commemorate the founding fathers of the moving picture.
For history buffs, Wikipedia would have been a faster way to learn about fictitious old-school moviemakers.

2012 Miss Tootsie Pageant

2012 Miss Tootsie Contestants

The city of Wadena, Minn., got a good laugh and helped a good cause Friday night during the third annual Miss Tootsie Pageant. 
Five area men dressed up as women and strutted their stuff in front of a crowded Wadena Memorial Auditorium. 
Organizer Bonnie Kingsley said the pageant was a success and raised about $2,000 for the Miss Wadena Scholarship Fund. 
“I’m very happy that there are gentlemen that will take this on,” Kingsley said. “To come up and put it out there on the stage (and) have fun with it. Really, without them raising the funds for Miss Wadena, we would struggle to keep the scholarship at the same level.”
Horizon Painting and Restoration owner Tom Anderson, known by his stage name as “Anita Moregano,” took home the crown. 
“This is such a great show and we had fun with it,” Anderson said. “Once you get up there, you really have fun. I didn’t do too bad for a homely looking Italian with a good wardrobe, I guess.” 

Tom Anderson with daughter Haley

Anderson joins his daughter Haley Anderson as Wadena royalty. Haley Anderson is the reigning Miss Wadena. 
Tom Anderson says his experience doing the pageant was memorable and a way to say thank you for what the scholarship fund offered his daughter.
“Well I think it just comes around full circle,” Anderson said. “The pageant has given to my daughter and given her a great experience, so I think I wanted to make sure we gave back.” 
In addition to winning Miss Tootsie, Anderson took home the awards for formal wear, onstage question and talent. 
The other men competing in the Gaga Goo-themed pageant were Erik Osberg as “Penny Wise,” George Behl as “Shelita Buffet,” Kevin Ford as “Alicia P. Supright” and Gary Carsten as “Barbie Buttercup.” Carsten won people’s choice and casual wear.
Kingsley says she is already planning next year’s Ms. Tootsie Pageant and has decided it will have a gypsy theme.

Wisconsin Basketball: Better Than Average, Nothing More

Photo Courtesy of thebuckeyebattlecry.com

Commuters in Minneapolis rush hour can get to work in less time than it takes the Wisconsin Badgers to score. 

Wisconsin (22-8) finds itself consistently looking like the focal point of a wake. 

While the chemistry and work ethic are there, the team's ability to create (other than Jordan Taylor) and find a steady stream of offense are not. 

The Badgers beat teams with discipline and a sloth's pace. 

They frustrate with aggressive, fluid defense and a patient, pass-heavy offense. 

It works.

The team has reached the NCAA Tournament in all 11 seasons Bo Ryan has coached. 

But it only goes so far. 

No matter how many wins the Badgers collect during the regular season, they cannot get past the more athletic foes. 

Not consistently, anyway. 

Once has UW made it deeper than the Sweet Sixteen, and that was largely due to the fact it played three straight teams seeded 10th or lower.  

During Ryan's tenure, the Badgers have not defeated a top four seed. 

That trend may not soon change. 

The Badgers are 19-2 this season against unranked teams, compared to 3-6 against the best competition. 

Ryan gets the most out of his players and runs a good system. 

But it seems as though there should be a point where finishing 25th in a race becomes unacceptable. 

Jeremy Lin: Ability Without Care

Photo Courtesy of the AP

Jeremy Lin mania has rocked the NBA like Ozzy Osbourne has shaken up the stage.
He is a marketable monolith both domestically and abroad and has rejuvenated a star-lusted league with unassuming dominance.
As great as his start has been, Lin is mistake prone like an AA member.
For every one-and-a-half flashy passes turned buckets and nearly each made field goal, Lin loses the ball.
Since snatching a starting role in the Knicks' backcourt Feb. 6, Lin has recorded just two games with fewer than four turnovers.
Overall, Lin has scored 246 points, collected 94 assists and produced 67 turnovers in 12 games.
The 20.5 points per game is fantastic. So is the nearly eight assists per tilt.
The 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio is bad for a point guard.
And his 5.6 flubs each time out is downright atrocious.
His play-making abilities have certainly helped the Knicks, which are 9-3 since Lin became a starter.
But the decision-making needs to ameliorate before the value of the player matches the attention he receives.

Moneyball: A Fact-Based Review

Reality is a matter of perception that can vary from individual to individual.

The movie “Moneyball” is a transcription of a new-age idea brought to life by the mind of Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane.

The story is compelling and romantic in the way the game of baseball is, with characters — most notably Beane himself, played by Brad Pitt — learning to accept themselves for who they are while overcoming past demons.

“Moneyball,” teaches — nay — preaches to “be true to thyself and thyself be true.”

The film showed there is anguish and uncertainty in defeat and confidence and triumph in victory.

Nonetheless, “Moneyball” is not without its flaws.

Some crack the very foundation upon which the flick sits.

“Moneyball” is a story about numbers. Numbers are facts. And facts, although sometimes misconstrued, tell the truth.

Ostensibly the Athletics were in a bind prior to the 2002 season because Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Jason Ishringhausen walked for more money. That’s what the movie conveys anyway.

What the movie producers failed to reveal is that the Oakland organization had found, groomed and developed arguably the best front-end starters in baseball.

Barry Zito won the American League’s CY Young Award in 2002. Behind Zito stood Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson.

Miguel Tejada, whose name was only mentioned in passing throughout the film, won AL MVP.

Tejada and Eric Chavez, two players already in the Athletics system before Moneyball techniques were instilled, formed a formidable left side of the infield.

The film isn’t focused on the big picture, though.

Its end aim is to proscribe baseball’s traditions and praise sabermetrics (numbers).

Any other storyline, even if it was a major player behind Oakland’s 103 win season, was omitted from the script.  

Peter Brand (played by Jonah Hill) is brought on to “recreate” (as the movie puts it) the void left by the departure of Giambi and company.

Whom the team acquired, though, is not historically accurate.

In the movie, Jeremy Giambi is said to have been coming from the Yankees, swapping places with his brother.

Chad Bradford, another key 2002 off-season sign in “Moneyball,” is described as a nobody, coming from essentially nowhere.

There’s a scene where he personally thanks Beane for being given a chance to prove himself.

In reality, Giambi and Bradford had already been with the team.

Concerning Bradford, he pitched in 35 games for Oakland the season prior.  

Never mind Beane’s daughter in the movie was singing a Lenka song that released in 2008, when the film was set in 2002.

Other parts of "Moneyball" were just odd.

For some reason, the movie seemed to climax during the game between the Kansas City Royals in which Oakland blew an 11-run lead before winning it courtesy of a walk-off home run from Scott Hatteberg.

During this time, Beane thought back to his failure as a “sure thing” player, which flayed his peace of mind and challenged his resolve.

Sure, the A’s were trying to make history by winning for the 20^th consecutive time.

There’s drama in that.

Had Oakland lost, though, the course of the season would not have changed.  

The real climactic point in the movie seemed to be an afterthought.

The movie scarcely seemed to play up final game of the year, a loss to the Twins in Game 5 of the ALDS after holding a 2-0 series lead.

Oh well.

Overall, “Moneyball” entertained.

Despite its glimpses of magnificence, however, the movie, like the A’s teams under Beane, doesn’t win its last game. 

NBA All-Star Game: Hollywood Hoedown

The NBA All-Star starters were named Thursday and the Western Conference is almost entirely from Los Angeles.
Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum of the Lakers and Chris Paul and Blake Griffin of the Clippers will join Kevin Durant for the West in Orlando Feb. 26.
They will play opposite three-time All-Star and reigning league MVP Derrick Rose, game host and leading vote-getter Dwight Howard, the Heat's Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
The league locked out to start the season has seen marquee players, including three All-Star Game starters (Paul, James and Anthony), move from small markets to big cities in the past year.
It's understandable the game's lesser exposed talents due to their location -- Kevin Love, for one -- would not be voted in to start.
Overall, though, the fans got this one right.
Reserves will be named next Thursday.

J.J. Barea: Good Acquisition, Frustrating Results

David Kahn showed some business sense when he went out and acquired insurance for incoming point guard Ricky Rubio.
An altogether new lifestyle and new language faced Rubio when he arrived in Minneapolis prior to the start of the season. To simultaneously help hasten and accommodate the proclaimed point guard of the future, Kahn acquired Spanish-speaking and Puerto Rican-born J.J. Barea.
The 6-foot veteran point guard is a high energy player who was considered to be an x-factor during Dallas' run to a title last season.
If Rubio struggled early, Barea would be a viable option for the Wolves, in addition to the returning Luke Ridnour, at the point.
The team chemistry move for Barea was brilliant on Kahn's part, especially since Rubio has been so fantastic -- he was named Rookie of the Month for January.
When it comes to Barea's own production, however, a lot is amiss.
In fact, the Wolves would quite possibly be better off without him.
Barea has been hampered by various leg injuries for much of the season.
The Wolves are 2-5 in the seven games he has played versus 8-7 in the 15 he has missed.
During his collegiate career at Northeastern, Barea shot anything and everything, en route to leading the country in shot percentage; he took more than 38 percent of his team's attempts.
Relegated to a backup role in the NBA, Barea hasn't had the opportunity to become a full-fledged black hole.
But it's still pretty bad.
Barea settles for a lot of 3s early in the shot clock and is notorious for driving wildly into the teeth of the defense. He often throws up prayers at the rim hoping Newton's laws of motion or the referees and their whistles will bail him out.
Most of the time, they don't.
Overall, he is shooting below 38 percent on the year, yet it is he who leads the team in shots per minute played, at a touch under .5.
Not even the proclaimed ball-hog and inconsistent Michael Beasley shoots at that rate (.454).
There's the defensive woes, too.
Barea has a negative plus/minus when out on the floor because of his small stature, this coming from a guy who has played for good teams throughout his career.
Beside, Minnesota has a lot of depth.
Coach Rick Adelman is admittedly tasked with finding playing time for all of his contributors.
One solution would be to let Barea ride the bench and simply be a cultural mentor to Rubio.

Wisconsin Hockey's Biggest Fan

Montee Ball Ties, Doesn't Top Barry Sanders' Historical Season

Historic season

Touchdown record did not fall

Good news for football

(A Haggy Haiku)

         ======================================================

As much fun it is to see records from seasons and generations past fall, it was extremely gratifying to see that Montee Ball did not overtake Barry Sanders in the history books. 

Oregon limited the Wisconsin running back and Heisman Trophy finalist to one touchdown in its 45-38 Rose Bowl victory Jan. 2. 

Just one more score and Ball would have set the single-season touchdown record, passing Barry Sanders. 

Instead, Ball and Sanders will share the distinction and total (39).

Similar to Roger Maris' home run feat in 1961 to best the Sultan of Swat Babe Ruth's mark of 60 in one season, another score and Ball would have edged Sanders while playing in more games. 

Ruth's 60 dinger effort in 1927 was over a 154 game season. Maris' 61 came during a 162 game schedule.   

Sanders scored 39 touchdowns in 11 games (the five he scored in the 1988 Holiday Bowl were not counted). Ball needed 14. 

Not to take anything away from Ball, Sanders simply put together a better season (and more touchdowns if you include the bowl game). 

As such, it would have been unfair to recognize the Wisconsin back as the single-season touchdown king. 

Matt Millen Broadcasts Fiesta Bowl

Worse than the BCS, which needs to go, failed Detroit Lions executive now ESPN analyst Matt Millen got the nod for Monday night's Fiesta Bowl between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Stanford Cardinal.
The marquee matchup between the No. 3 and 4 team in the country, one which features incredible talent on both sidelines, was underscored by the presence of Millen in the broadcast booth.
Football knowledge he has. But like his days in the corner office of the Lions organization, Millen makes mistakes and personalizes the game in front of him too much to warrant such a billing.
Thank goodness the game lived up to the hype.

Aaron Rodgers v. The Green Bay Packers

Matt Flynn set records for the Green Bay Packer passing attack in his second career start that Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre never achieved.
Rodgers' backup from LSU threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns, including the game-winning strike to Jermichael Finley with 70 seconds remaining to lead Green Bay over Detroit 45-41.
The game meant more to Detroit, who was trying to win for the first time at Lambeau Field since 1991 and avoid having to travel to the Superdome for a first round matchup with the red hot Saints.
Instead Flynn, taking advantage of a rare opportunity to start while Rodgers rested for the postseason, upstaged Matthew Stafford, who amassed 520 yards passing to eclipse 5,000 for the year and five scores of his own.
Flynn, in Rodgers fashion, found Jordy Nelson for three touchdowns of 7, 36 and 58 yards. He hit running back Ryan Grant for an 80-yard score and connected with Donald Driver from 35 yards out in a back-and-forth fourth quarter before finding Finley with the game-winner.
The win did not change Green Bay's postseason outlook; the Packers had already clinched home-field advantage.
It did open up an interesting question about the value of Mr. Rodgers.
With Peyton Manning in 2010 the Indianapolis Colts went 10-6. Without this year: 2-14.
The Packers, on the other hand, won with Flynn against a Lions team with everything to play for.
Rodgers was unstoppable for 13 consecutive weeks. When Greg Jennings went down with a knee injury, he lost to Kansas City.
Now this.
There's no question the defending Super Bowl champ is an elite signal caller. But like the chicken or the egg question, is it the system and personnel of Green Bay that makes Rodgers so good or the other way around? (Or maybe simply the Detroit Lions defense is just that bad.)
Let the debate begin.