AL MVP

Baseball is over for the year. Starting with Gold Glove winners announced the past two days, this is the time awards and their winners are unveiled.
The award that concerns this post is MVP. Since there are two awards, there will be two blog entries. Let's start in the American League.
The breakdown will go as follows: "Frontrunners" followed by "You'd Think So, But No Way" and "Blew It" before finishing with "My Pick."

Frontrunners

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
.328 AVG, 85 RBI, .413 OBP

Why He's Deserving
Mauer led the AL in batting average for the second time in three seasons reducing the gap between a catcher winning the award from 76 to one. Cool Joe was even better in pressure situations (two outs with runners in scoring position) batting at a .361 clip. Defensively, he committed three errors and threw out 36.3 percent of potential base stealers, third best in the league.
He mentored an inexperienced rotation heading into the season and developed it into a formidable fivesome, propelling the Twins to within a game of the playoffs when preseason expectations were on par with a blind date.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Numbers talk. Mauer hit nine home runs. Statistically, he wasn't the best player on his team -- a distinction held by first baseman Justin Morneau (who would have made the list if not for a 1-for-20 conclusion to the season when the team was vying for the AL Central title). When it comes down to voting, the quality of the team is also considered. The Twins nearly made the postseason. Since 1990, only Alex Rodriguez, in 2003, and Cal Ripken, in 1991, have won the AL MVP and not made the playoffs.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
.326 AVG, 17 HRs, 83 RBI, 20 SB

Why He's Deserving
Injuries riddled the Red Sox lineup this season and Manny Ramirez left for Los Angeles. Pedroia was the hanger that held the lineup in place. He hit for power -- slugging .547 after the All-Star Break -- average and stole bases. The 5-9, 180 pound secondbaseman batted cleanup a few times.
He played Gold Glove defense. And don't forget, the Red Sox played into October.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
The Red Sox are deep. If Pedroia didn't carry the team someone else would've. Sure, David Ortiz missed a few months and never fully regained his swing. J.D. Drew missed the stretch run. Mike Lowell was in and out of the lineup. Ramirez was gone by August. But the Sox got Jason Bay. Kevin Youkilis was always there.
A team full of Brandon Inge's and Adam Everett's could still win games. Jon Lester and Dice-K were brilliant. The backend was good, too, masking an average season from ace Josh Beckett.
It all amounts to Pedroia having a hard time standing alone as the guy.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
.304 AVG, 32 HRs, 130 RBI

Why He's Deserving
The feel-good story in baseball this season, Hamilton unearthed his five-tool potential. By the All-Star break, Hamilton was a serious Triple Crown threat, batting .310 to go with 21 dingers and 95 RBI. Hamilton exhibited his Zeus-like strength at the Home Run Derby. The Big Brown of baseball's power show, and other Derby, belted a record-shaking 28 first round home runs, including 13 in a row.
At season's end, Hamilton led the league in RBI and placed in the top 12 in home runs and average. Youkilis and Aubrey Huff were the only other two hitters to finish in the top 12 of all three categories.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
He played for the Texas Rangers, a ballclub that owned the worst team ERA in baseball. Not Hamilton's fault, but it contributes to an average 79-83 record, which hurts.
Hamilton didn't play any games that counted, games that other candidates experienced. The pressure of a race didn't exist, making the game easier to play.
When Ian Kinsler was in the lineup, Hamilton was unbelievable. After Kinsler went down with a sports hernia injury, Hamilton became mortal. Kinsler was the team's catalyst -- just as important as the one who drives him home.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
.247 AVG, 31 HRs, 102 RBI

Why He's Deserving
Evan Longoria may be the Rays' MVP of the future, but Pena is head-above leader in Tampa Bay.
His power came alive in the second half -- the one that counts -- and his defense is always there. Pena batted .247, but he finished second among hitters in the American League in Wins Probability Added -- a statistic developed to see how valuable a player is in tight situations by determining, as you might guess, the number of games he wins during a season.
Lifting the franchise off the couch after 10 years of watching others succeed, Pena not only helped the Rays to a playoff appearance, he brought a World Series appearance to St. Petersburg.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
His average. Pena added four-plus wins to the team's record. OK. The last time a hitter won the MVP award with a sub-.250 average was, well, never. Roger Maris batted .269 in 1961. He also hit a then-record 61 home runs that year. Sorry Pena.

You'd Think So, But No Way

Francisco Rodriguez, Closer, Los Angeles Angels
62 Saves, 2.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 77Ks/68.1 IP

Rodriguez is the new single-season record-holder for saves in a season with 62. Much has been said about him receiving votes, possibly taking home the award for closing down over half of the best team in baseball's wins.
Hold up.
Saves are one of the most overrated statistics in baseball. A late-innings reliever gets a "hold" for securing a three-run or fewer lead. Same concept as a save, but 2008 hold leader Carlos Marmol isn't spoken of in the light Rodriguez is.
No one cares.
For some reason saves seem like a magical number. Yes, it does calibrate the number of times a pitcher has held onto a "close" lead in the ninth inning. Without good starting pitching and defense and mediocre hitting, games wouldn't be close enough for a closer to have value.
Any votes Rodriguez receives should be divided among his teammates.
Never mind 22 of his saves came with a three-run cushion and 21 more with a pair of tallies to spare. He wasn't the best pitcher in the American League -- undoubtedly held by Indians pitcher Cliff Lee, who should win the CY Young Award -- let alone best closer in baseball.
That doesn't sound like an MVP.
Rodriguez saved 62 ballgames. He blew seven. Brad Lidge saved 41. He blew zero. OK, Brad Lidge pitched in the National League.
When it comes to WPA, Rodriguez isn't No. 1 among AL closers. Mariano Rivera is, followed by Joakim Soria, Bobby Jenks, then Rodriguez.
Put the MVP talk to rest, Rodriguez's season was memorable, not game-changing.

Blew It

Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox
.288 Avg, 36 HRs, 100 RBI, .956 SLG

Without a doubt, the hands down winner of this race heading into September. He then decided to get angry over one measly pop-up against the best pitcher of 2008, Cliff Lee, punched his bat and broke his wrist. Season over. Although his numbers stack up to league leaders Alex Rodriguez, Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, AND his team made the playoffs, he wasn't there for the stretch run, diminishing his value.

My Pick

It's got to be Mauer. A catcher can change the game both offensively and defensively by calling a good game. Mauer is arguably the best there is at both.
He played games that mattered in September, missing the postseason by a one-game playoff and one Nick Blackburn mistake (the Twins starter gave up a home run to Jim Thome in the 1-0 loss).
Thanks to Mauer's .413 OBP, Morneau was given the opportunity to drive in runs, which he did.
For those not sold on his downright lousy power (nine roundtrippers), Mauer led the league in WPA. Simply, on a team that didn't have dominant hitters around him other than Morneau, hence the 85 RBI, Mauer radiated greatness.