NL MVP Watch

Tomorrow's the big day, the day the NL MVP will be announced. Like last time, let's briefly break down the candidates ("Frontrunners"), then go over the highly possible, but undeserving potential winner (You'd Think So, But No Way") and the guy who made a strong case yet won't take home the award ("Blew It") before finishing with who I think should win ("My Pick"). Several players put up terrific indivual efforts on winning ballclubs, something missing across the board for the AL candidates, so the outcome isn't guaranteed to anyone.
Let's take a look at those who could win.

Frontrunners

Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
.312 AVG, 29 HRs, 106 RBI, .420 OBP

Why He's Deserving
Berkman mastered the game to where he was playing slow-pitch sotfball. He hit .471 in May and by the All-Star break was leading the National League with 79 runs and 73 RBI, all while hitting .347. He added speed to his game, too, stealing 15 bags by the Midseason Classic.
He was a staple in the lineup of a legitimate playoff contender, leading the National League in Wins Probability Added at 6.71* and finishing in the top-5 in hitting with runners in scoring position at .345.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
May is fine to remove arrows from your quiver, but you need to have some left in August and September. Berkman hit went through a homerless July, then a decent August, before playing sub-Mendoza Line baseball in September (.179 AVG). Overall, he hit just. 259 and seven homers in the second half.
Moreover, where Berkman's portfolio was strong, Albert Pujols' was stronger.

David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
.302 AVG, 33 HRs, 124 RBI, .390 OBP

Why He's Deserving
Wright's a .300/100R/30HR/100RBI threat every season. He did everything he could to keep the Mets afloat in the Wild Card and divisional race, increasing his average by 48 points from the first half to the second.
Overall, Wright quite possibly had his most productive season in what has been a tremendous young career.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
The twin help. Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado provided Wright with protection and gave the Mets the most productive trio of hitters in baseball.
Hovering over Wright's head is another September collapse of sorts. Not making the playoffs, even with the addition of Johan Santana, weighs heavily on the franchise's posterboy's MVP chances.

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
.357 AVG, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 1.114 OPS

Why He's Deserving
Baseball is a game of numbers. Pujols crunched them all -- with shredded ligaments in his elbow and a bad back at that. Tim Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal doesn't seem to believe that the player with the best numbers is the front-runner for MVP, but if you ignore numbers what do you have left? Try Prince Fielder finishing ahead of Pujols. Hmm. Interesting.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Pujols has a knack for finishing second. The standard has become if someone else has a monster season and Pujols is consistently great like usual, the other player will win.
He also didn't make the playoffs (if only the 86-76 Cardinals played in the NL West).

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
.285 AVG, 37 HRs, 106 RBI, 14 SB

Why He's Deserving
Braun had solid protection in Caliban who hit 34 home runs, including MLB-leading 18 after the sixth inning, but Braun carried the Brewers. He came up with timely hits and even turned in a solid year defensively with the move to left field. How bout that?

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Braun wasn't healthy for portions of the second-half and definitely wasn't the same. He batted .209 in September.
In a league of too many extraordinary gentlemen, Braun probably doesn't quite make the cut.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
.289 AVG, 27 HRs, 111 RBI

Why He's Deserving
Ramirez was the best player on the league's best team. His .360 average from the seventh inning on paced the league.

Why It Could Be Someone Else
Like Braun, Wright, Delgado (whom I neglected to mention because teammate Wright should finish higher than he), and even Berkman, Ramirez was terrific, but not unique.

You'd Think So, But No Way

Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
.251 AVG, 48 HRs, 146 RBI

There's a telling truth behind Howard's numbers. Yes, he led the major leagues in home runs and RBI, again. Yes, he hits well with runners in scoring position (.320). And yes, he did carry the team to the postseason with an 11 dinger, 32 RBI September outburst to go with a .352 average.
He also struck out 29 percent of the time he stepped up to the plate. A guaranteed out 199 times. Whoever says September numbers are the most important (cough, Hadricourt, cough), has got to be fooling themselves. Someone had to keep the Phillies in the hunt while Howard looked like Christy Brown trying to hit a baseball. No doubt the stretch run is important, slightly more so than the early months, but the best players, an MVP, are those who can produce for an entire season.
Twenty-eight players ranked ahead of Howard in WPA, giving a realistic look that maybe Howard isn't as valuable to a team as, say Pujols, even Russell Martin.
No MVP has ever had a batting average below .269.
Also keep in mind there's serious argument that Chase Utley is the more valuable Philly. George W. Bush seems to think so.

Blew It

Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
.396 AVG, 17 HRs, 53 RBI, 1.232 OPS in 53 games

Too bad he played in the American League until the trading deadline.
Look at the stat line above and add this to the equation: Manny batted .450 with runners in scoring position and two outs and .463 with runners in scoring position. He slugged .789 and got on-base 49 percent of the time.
Talk about mammoth production.
Randy Moss and Manny seem so much alike: nonchalant and carefree. But when you change it up and break up the bore of the routine, they go to work like dynamite on bedrock.
Alas, as great as Manny's numbers with the Dodgers were, two months doesn't make the entire season. Just ask Berkman.

My Pick

Pujols, hands down. Nobody put together as consistent and dominant numbers as the Cardinals' first baseman for a full season's worth of games. He makes everyone else around him better, too.
Look at what once washed up prospect Ryan Ludwick, who hit sub-.200 in the three weeks Pujols was out of the lineup, and Rick Ankiel did with Pujols around. Sounds like an MVP to me.

*Refer to the AL MVP blog for a description of what WPA means exactly